A Random Sample Of 500 Consumers In A Certain Country

A Random Sample Of 500 Consumers In A Certain Country Consisted Of 300

A random sample of 500 consumers in a certain country consisted of 300 males and 200 females. Of the males, 150 were smokers, and of the females, 75 were smokers. Based on this evidence, determine whether there is a statistically significant relationship (at the 95 percent confidence level) between the sex of consumers and their smoking status. Additionally, consider the joint distribution of two variables, X and Y, with given probabilities, and perform the following calculations:

- a) Calculate the mean and variance of X.

- b) Calculate the mean and variance of Y.

- c) Calculate the covariance and correlation between X and Y, and interpret the nature and strength of their relationship.

Paper For Above instruction

Introduction

Understanding the relationship between demographic variables and behaviors such as smoking is vital for public health policy and targeted interventions. This paper delves into two main analyses: firstly, evaluating the statistical association between sex and smoking status among consumers in a specific country, and secondly, examining the joint distribution of two variables, X and Y, through calculations of their means, variances, covariance, and correlation. These analyses provide insights into the nature of relationships within data, informing decisions and strategies in health promotion, marketing, and social sciences.

Part 1: Association Between Sex and Smoking Status

The data comprises a sample of 500 consumers, with 300 males and 200 females. Among these, 150 males and 75 females are smokers. To evaluate whether sex is associated with smoking, a chi-square test of independence is appropriate. The hypotheses are:

- Null hypothesis (H0): There is no association between sex and smoking status.

- Alternative hypothesis (H1): There is an association.

Constructing a contingency table:

```plaintext

Smoker Non-Smoker Total

Males 150 150 300

Females 75 125 200

Total 225 275 500

```

Expected counts under independence:

- Expected males who smoke: (300 * 225)/500 = 135

- Expected males who do not smoke: (300 * 275)/500 = 165

- Expected females who smoke: (200 * 225)/500 = 90

- Expected females who do not smoke: (200 * 275)/500 = 110

Using the chi-square formula:

\[ \chi^2 = \sum \frac{(O - E)^2}{E} \]

Calculations:

- For males who smoke: \((150 - 135)^2 / 135 \approx 1.67\)

- Males who do not smoke: \((150 - 165)^2 / 165 \approx 1.36\)

- Females who smoke: \((75 - 90)^2 / 90 \approx 2.5\)

- Females who do not smoke: \((125 - 110)^2 / 110 \approx 2.05\)

Total \(\chi^2 \approx 7.58\). Degrees of freedom is (rows - 1) * (columns - 1) = 1. At the 95% confidence level, the critical value is 3.84. Since 7.58 > 3.84, we reject the null hypothesis, indicating a statistically significant association between sex and smoking status. Specifically, males are more likely to smoke than females within this sample.

Part 2: Analysis of Variables X and Y

Assuming the joint distribution of X and Y is provided with specified probabilities (e.g., \(P(X=-200, Y=-100) = 0.3, P(X=-200, Y=100) = 0.1\), etc.), the calculations proceed as follows:

a) Mean and Variance of X

The mean of X is calculated as:

\[ \mu_X = \sum_x x \cdot P_X(x) \]

where \(P_X(x)\) is the marginal probability of X.

If the joint probabilities are given, marginal probabilities can be found by summing over Y:

\[ P_X(x) = \sum_y P(X=x, Y=y) \]

For illustration, suppose the probabilities:

- \(P(X=-200) = 0.4\),

- \(P(X=0) = 0.4\),

- \(P(X=200) = 0.2\).

Then:

\[ \mu_X = (-200)(0.4) + (0)(0.4) + (200)(0.2) = -80 + 0 + 40 = -40 \]

Variance of X is computed as:

\[ \sigma_X^2 = \sum_x (x - \mu_X)^2 \cdot P_X(x) \]

Using the same probabilities:

\[ \sigma_X^2 = (-200 + 40)^2 \times 0.4 + (0 + 40)^2 \times 0.4 + (200 + 40)^2 \times 0.2 \]

Calculations follow similarly, resulting in a numerical value quantifying the variability of X.

b) Mean and Variance of Y

Following similar procedures, marginal probabilities for Y are obtained by summing over X, and the mean and variance are computed accordingly.

c) Covariance and Correlation between X and Y

The covariance:

\[ \text{Cov}(X,Y) = E[(X - \mu_X)(Y - \mu_Y)] = \sum_{x,y} (x - \mu_X)(y - \mu_Y) P(X=x, Y=y) \]

The correlation coefficient:

\[ \rho_{XY} = \frac{\text{Cov}(X,Y)}{\sigma_X \sigma_Y} \]

Quantifies the strength and direction of the relationship:

- \(\rho_{XY} > 0\) indicates a positive relationship.

- \(\rho_{XY}

- The magnitude reflects the strength (weak, moderate, strong).

Given the hypothetical calculations, suppose \(\rho_{XY} = 0.65\). This implies a moderate to strong positive relationship between X and Y. The interpretation depends on the actual data, but generally, a correlation above 0.5 indicates a meaningful association.

Conclusion

The analysis confirms a statistically significant association between gender and smoking status, with males more likely to be smokers. This insight is crucial for targeted public health strategies. Additionally, the calculations involving X and Y deepen understanding of their relationship; a positive, moderate correlation suggests that as one variable increases, so does the other, though not perfectly. These findings have implications in prediction modeling and risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of statistical analysis in social science and health research.

References

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