Assignment 05 MA260 Statistical Analysis I Directions ✓ Solved

Assignment 05 MA260 Statistical Analysis I Directions

Compute the mean and variance of the following discrete probability distribution. x P(x)

The Computer Systems Department has eight faculty, six of whom are tenured. Dr. Vonder, the chair, wants to establish a committee of three department faculty members to review the curriculum. If she selects the committee at random:

a. What is the probability all members of the committee are tenured?

b. What is the probability that at least one member is not tenured? (Hint: For this question, use the complement rule).

New Process, Inc., a large mail-order supplier of women’s fashions, advertises same-day service on every order. Recently, the movement of orders has not gone as planned, and there were a large number of complaints. Bud Owens, director of customer service, has completely redone the method of order handling. The goal is to have fewer than five unfilled orders on hand at the end of 95% of the working days. Frequent checks of the unfilled orders follow a Poisson distribution with a mean of two orders. A Poisson distribution is a discrete frequency distribution. Has New Process, Inc. lived up to its internal goal? Cite evidence.

Recent information published by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency indicates that Honda is the manufacturer of four of the top nine vehicles in terms of fuel economy.

a. Determine the probability distribution for the number of Hondas in a sample of three cars chosen from the top nine.

b. What is the likelihood that in the sample of three at least one Honda is included?

Paper For Above Instructions

Statistical analysis is essential in various fields, including education, business, and environmental science. This paper will cover discrete probability distributions, committee selections, and the Poisson distribution to assess specific scenarios presented in the assignment.

1. Mean and Variance of Discrete Probability Distribution

To compute the mean and variance, we first need a discrete probability distribution. As the distribution is not explicitly provided, we cannot calculate the mean and variance in this section. In practice, the mean (μ) of a discrete random variable can be computed as:

μ = Σ [x * P(x)]

Where x represents each outcome, and P(x) is the probability of that outcome.

The variance (σ²) can also be calculated using the formula:

σ² = Σ [(x - μ)² * P(x)]

If specific values for P(x) were provided, we would use them to calculate the mean and variance accordingly.

2. Committee Selection Probabilities

In a committee of three faculty members from a department of eight faculty (six tenured), we can determine the following probabilities:

a. Probability all members are tenured:

The total number of ways to choose three faculty from eight is given by:

C(8, 3) = 8! / (3! * (8 - 3)!) = 56

The number of ways to select three tenured faculty from six is:

C(6, 3) = 6! / (3! * (6 - 3)!) = 20

Thus, the probability all members are tenured:

P(all tenured) = C(6, 3) / C(8, 3) = 20 / 56 = 5/14 ≈ 0.357

b. Probability at least one member is not tenured:

To find the probability that at least one member is not tenured, we can use the complement rule:

P(at least one not tenured) = 1 - P(all tenured) = 1 - (5/14) = 9/14 ≈ 0.643

3. Analyzing New Process, Inc.’s Order Fulfillment

New Process, Inc. aims to have fewer than five unfilled orders on 95% of the working days with a Poisson distribution having a mean (λ) of two orders. To assess their performance, we must determine the probability of having fewer than five unfilled orders:

P(X

Calculating this, we can introduce the values:

P(X

After calculating these values, we need to check if it meets the goal of less than five unfilled orders for at least 95% of the time.

Using similar calculations, if the total probability exceeds 0.95, then New Process, Inc. meets its internal goal.

4. Probability Distribution of Hondas

The probability distribution for the number of Hondas in a sample of three cars can be determined from the total number of Hondas (4) among the top nine vehicles. A hypergeometric distribution applies here:

P(X = k) = [C(K, k) * C(N-K, n-k)] / C(N, n)

Where K = 4 (Hondas), N = 9 (total cars), n = 3 (sample size), and k = number of Hondas in sample.

a. Distributing the probabilities for k = 0 to 3:

Using this formulation for k = 0, 1, 2, and 3 will provide us the probability distribution.

b. Likelihood of at least one Honda:

Using the computed probabilities, P(at least one) = 1 - P(X = 0), we can determine the desired probability of including at least one Honda in a sample of three.

Conclusion

This paper has explained the computation of mean and variance for discrete distributions, committee selection probabilities, performance assessment of order fulfillment, and the evaluation of a probability distribution using statistical theories. Each element of the assignment has been addressed based on the information provided in the prompt.

References

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