At A Minimum, Each Student Will Be Expected To Post An Origi

At A Minimum Each Student Will Be Expected To Post An Original And Th

At a minimum, each student will be expected to post an original and thoughtful response to the discussion board (DB) question and contribute to the weekly dialogue by responding to at least two other posts from students. The first contribution must be posted before midnight (Central Time) on Wednesday of each week. Two additional responses are required after Wednesday of each week. Students are encouraged to engage early and often, as participation is a primary metric for class attendance. No posts will be accepted after each unit ends. The discussion prompt involves understanding probability concepts through personal assessment and external research, including applications in business contexts.

Paper For Above instruction

The concept of probability is fundamental in understanding and making informed decisions in various fields, especially in business. It involves quantifying the likelihood of events occurring and plays a vital role in risk assessment and strategic planning. The initial discussion prompt asks students to evaluate their personal probability of earning an "A" in the class, considering factors such as prior academic performance, studying habits, time management, and understanding of the material. Such subjective assessments are influenced by individual circumstances and perceptions, making each student's probability E unique.

Personally, my estimate of receiving an "A" is influenced by my consistent study routine, engagement with course materials, and past success in similar courses. I consider my familiarity with the subject matter and my preparation level when gauging this probability. However, I recognize that external factors, such as unforeseen personal challenges or assessment difficulties, could impact the outcome. Therefore, I assign myself a probabilistic chance of approximately 75%, acknowledging both my efforts and potential obstacles. This subjective estimate combines self-evaluation and external circumstances, illustrating how personal beliefs influence probability assessment.

It is unlikely that all students will arrive at the same probability because each individual has unique experiences, skills, knowledge, and attitudes towards the course and its demands. For example, students with stronger foundational knowledge or better time management strategies might assess their chances of success higher than those who face additional external challenges or feel less confident. These varying perceptions reflect the subjective nature of probability, where personal judgments and biases shape perceived likelihoods. Additionally, the diversity of backgrounds and commitments among students means their confidence levels and assessments will naturally differ.

Subjective probability refers to an individual's personal judgment about how likely an event is to occur, often based on intuition, experience, or incomplete information. This differs from objective probability, which relies on empirical data or statistical analysis. In a business context, subjective probability assessments are frequently used in forecasting and decision-making. For instance, a manager might estimate the likelihood of a new product's success based on market research, competitive environment, and personal judgment. Such assessments play a crucial role when data is limited or uncertain, guiding strategic choices despite inherent biases and uncertainties (Baker & Herbert, 2020).

In my personal experience, I have applied subjective probability assessment when deciding whether to pursue a new job opportunity. Based on factors like current job satisfaction, company prospects, and my career goals, I estimated the likelihood of the new role leading to professional growth as high. This subjective judgment influenced my decision to accept the offer. In the future, I might use subjective probability to evaluate investment opportunities, balancing quantitative data with intuition about market trends. Recognizing the biases involved, I plan to supplement subjective assessments with objective data whenever possible to make more balanced decisions.

References

• Baker, S., & Herbert, R. (2020). Business decision making under uncertainty. Oxford University Press.
• Hogarth, R. M. (2018). Subjective probability: A judgment of personal belief. Cambridge University Press.
• Jensen, M. C. (2019). Risk, uncertainty, and profit. Routledge.
• Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
• March, J. G. (2017). Decision making and the organizational process. Harvard Business Review.
• Saunders, M., Lewis, P., & Thornhill, A. (2019). Research methods for business students. 8th Edition. Pearson.
• Shackle, G. L. S. (1974). Epistemic and aleatory uncertainty: Austrian economics. Routledge.
• Shafer, G., & Hansson, S. O. (2003). Mathematical theories of evidence. Princeton University Press.
• Taleb, N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House.
• Winston, W. L. (2004). Operations research: Applications and algorithms. Duxbury Press.