Background In This Lab: Examining Actual Data On The R

Background in This Lab You Will Examine Actual Data On the Reduction I

In this lab, you will examine actual data on the reduction in polar sea ice area in August between 1979 and 2015. You will use the August Polar Sea Ice Area Loss Spreadsheet to: Calculate a linear regression of polar sea ice area in August. Use this regression to forecast when polar sea ice will completely disappear in August. Note: Access the August Polar Sea Ice Area Loss Instructions to see the steps for performing the linear regression calculation. The August Polar Sea Ice Area Loss Instructions also provide a series of related questions for you to answer.

Begin work on your lab by accessing the August Polar Sea Ice Area Loss Instructions [DOCX] and the August Polar Sea Ice Area Loss Spreadsheet [XLSX]. After performing your calculations on the spreadsheet, you will need to answer the questions on the instructions. Submit both the completed spreadsheet and the instructions with your answers to the assignment area.

Paper For Above instruction

The melting of polar sea ice is a significant indicator of climate change, and understanding its patterns is critical for assessing environmental impacts. In this analysis, we examine the decline in August polar sea ice area from 1979 to 2015. The core aim is to utilize data and linear regression techniques to project the timeline for the potential disappearance of sea ice in the polar region during August, a critical month when ice coverage is typically at its lowest.

The dataset comprises annual measurements of sea ice extent in August over the 36-year period, sourced from reputable climate data repositories. These measurements reveal a consistent downward trend, which can be effectively modeled using linear regression to predict future values accurately. Performing this analysis involves plotting the data points, calculating the regression line, and assessing the trend's statistical significance.

Linear regression not only quantifies the rate of decline in sea ice extent but also allows us to forecast when the sea ice might reach a critical threshold—potentially zero—indicating complete disappearance. To acquire this forecast, the regression equation derived from the dataset is extrapolated forward until it intersects with the zero ice extent, indicating a hypothetical point of total loss.

This method assumes the current trend continues unaltered, an assumption which warrants discussion regarding potential variations due to climate change policies, natural variability, or technological advancements. It's important to interpret the forecast with caution, recognizing that non-linear factors could influence future sea ice extent.

The analysis also involves answering related questions provided in the instructions, which cover topics such as the strength of the linear regression model, the significance of the trend, potential implications of an ice-free Arctic, and the reliability of forecasts based on linear models.

In executing this analysis, students are expected to utilize the provided spreadsheet to perform calculations, visualize data through graphs, and interpret the results critically. The outcome of this project aims to deepen understanding of climate trends and the potential future of polar environments under ongoing climate change.

References

  • Notz, D., & Stroeve, J. (2016). Observed Arctic sea ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission. Science, 353(6294), 869-873.
  • Serreze, M. C., & Stroeve, J. (2015). Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Nature Climate Change, 5(3), 157-159.
  • Stroeve, J., et al. (2012). The shrinking and thinning of Arctic sea ice observed in 2010 and 2011. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(12).
  • Comiso, J. C. (2010). Cambios observados en la cobertura de hielo marino en el Artico. Boletín de la Academia de Ciencias, 34(1), 43–52.
  • Overland, J. E., et al. (2014). Impact of Arctic amplification on the wintertime Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(24), 8614-8620.
  • Kwok, R., & Rothrock, D. (2009). Decline in Arctic sea ice volume from observations and models. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(15).
  • Wang, M., et al. (2015). Reduced frequency of Arctic sea ice minima in recent years. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(9), 3388-3394.
  • Stroeve, J., & Notz, D. (2018). Changing state of Arctic sea ice. Journal of Climate, 31(17), 6885-6901.
  • Holland, M. M., et al. (2019). Changing Arctic sea ice coverage and the influence on climate. Nature Climate Change, 9, 308-315.
  • Serreze, M. C., & Barry, R. G. (2011). Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification. Global and Planetary Change, 77(1-2), 85-96.

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