Bua 3345 International Business Module 1 Journal Emerging Ma

Bua 3345 International Businessmodule 1 Journal Emerging Markets Tw

This journal entry will give you an opportunity to formulate your own opinion on whether or not you think globalization will continue. Your ability to critically analyze the case below will lay the foundation for understanding key concepts and themes throughout the rest of this course. The closing case for Chapter 1 in Global Business presents two scenarios regarding globalization: “continued globalization†and “de-globalization.†To complete this journal entry, read the closing case referenced above and address the following: which of the two scenarios is more plausible for the global economy in 2050? Explain why with specific reasons to support your position.

Paper For Above instruction

Predicting the future trajectory of the global economy is inherently complex, yet analyses by leading financial and economic institutions provide insight into plausible scenarios for 2050. The two predominant scenarios regarding globalization—continued globalization and de-globalization—present contrasting visions of the world’s economic future, and evaluating their plausibility requires examining current trends, potential disruptions, and long-term structural forces.

The case for continued globalization is underpinned by several compelling factors. First, the longstanding trend of economic integration and rising global trade suggests that international cooperation is resilient, and institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and regional blocs will continue to facilitate cross-border commerce. Second, the emergence of large economies such as China, India, and other BRIC and N-11 countries projecting rapid growth signifies a dynamic shift in global economic power. These countries have demonstrated resilience through technological advancement, demographic shifts, and policy reforms that promote economic expansion (Goldman Sachs, 2012). Third, technological innovations, especially in communication, transportation, and digital infrastructure, foster seamless global connectivity, reducing costs and increasing opportunities for international businesses. As a result, global supply chains are likely to become more efficient and integrated, referencing the optimistic projections of Goldman Sachs and OECD (OECD, 2012), which predict that emerging markets will continue to outpace developed economies, albeit at a slower rate over time.

Furthermore, historical patterns suggest that systemic economic growth in large emerging markets is difficult to sustain indefinitely, but the structural drivers supporting globalization—such as urbanization, technological adoption, and population shifts—are resilient forces. As these countries urbanize and adopt modern industries, they contribute to the creation of a more interconnected global economy. Moreover, the prospects of regional cooperation fostering stability and the potential for global political stability imply that major disruptions—like geopolitical conflicts or natural disasters—may be less likely to cause the complete unraveling of globalization in the foreseeable future. The assumption that international institutions will continue functioning reasonably is critical, as they provide frameworks for dispute resolution, standard setting, and economic cooperation that undergird the continued globalization scenario (Schwab, 2017).

By contrast, the de-globalization scenario envisions increased geopolitical tensions, protectionism, and regional conflicts leading to economic fragmentation. Factors such as climate change, resource scarcity, and political unrest could intensify, causing countries to prioritize domestic over international interests. Protectionist policies and the breakdown of key international institutions, such as the European Union or WTO, could hinder global trade flows and create barriers—raising costs for firms and consumers alike (Rodrik, 2018). Historical instances, including the 20th-century Great Depression and recent trade wars, demonstrate how economic downturns fuel populism and protectionism, which threaten the fabric of interconnected markets. A prolonged period of recession, high unemployment, and environmental crises could exacerbate domestic tensions, leading countries to retreat into regionalism or national sovereignty. Such a fragmented world would limit growth opportunities, especially for emerging economies striving to leverage global trade to lift themselves out of poverty (Rodrik, 2018; Baldwin, 2020).

While de-globalization could lead to more localized economic clusters or blocs, it would generally impose higher costs on businesses and consumers and reduce the overall efficiency of resource allocation. For emerging markets trying to transition from agricultural to industrial economies, restricted access to global markets might hinder their development trajectories (World Bank, 2019). Additionally, declining international cooperation could destabilize supply chains, amplify economic inequalities, and heighten geopolitical tensions, raising the risk of conflicts over resources, especially water and energy—phenomena associated with "water wars" (Karekezi & Kithyoma, 2002). The possible breakdown of supranational institutions like the EU could exacerbate regional disparities and weaken global governance mechanisms, leading to a more fragmented, unstable world economy (Baldwin, 2020).

Assessing these scenarios, the more plausible outlook for 2050 appears to be a continuation of globalization, supported by technological progress, evolving economic dynamics, and persistent institutional commitments, despite some challenges. While setbacks such as protectionism, climate crises, and geopolitical conflicts are inevitable, the overarching trend of economic integration driven by emerging markets' growth, digital connectivity, and global cooperation is likely to persist. Historically, economies have shown resilience and capacity for adaptation following crises, and the scale of potential gains from sustained cooperation incentivizes nations to maintain pathways toward globalization. Nonetheless, the pace and nature of this progression may be tempered by increasing regionalism and reforms aimed at balancing interdependence with national interests. In sum, the forces favoring continued globalization—technological innovation, economic shifts, and institutional stability—support its plausibility, albeit with cautious recognition of potential disruptions that could slow or reshape this trajectory.

References

• Baldwin, R. (2020). The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization. Harvard University Press.
• Karekezi, S., & Kithyoma, W. (2002). Energy and Poverty in Africa. Energy Policy, 30(11-12), 1057-1066.
• OECD. (2012). Looking to 2060: A global vision of long-term growth. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
• Rodrik, D. (2018). Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy. Princeton University Press.
• Schwab, K. (2017). The Fourth Industrial Revolution. Crown Business.
• World Bank. (2019). Global Economic Prospects. World Bank Publications.
• Goldman Sachs. (2012). An update on the long-term outlook for the BRICs and beyond. Monthly Insights from the Office of the Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management.