Calculate A 95% Confidence Interval For The Proportion Of AL
Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of all acceptable applicants who accept Harrigan’s invitation to enroll. Do the same for all acceptable applicants with a combined score less than 330, with a combined score between 330 and 375, and then with a combined score greater than 375. (Note that 330 and 375 are approximately the first and third quartiles of the Combined Score variable.)
The task involves computing multiple 95% confidence intervals for proportions based on different segments of applicant data. The overall goal is to assess Harrigan University's success in attracting accepted applicants to enroll, and how this success varies among applicants with different combined scores. Specifically, the analysis includes calculating confidence intervals for the general population of acceptable applicants, as well as for subgroups categorized by quartiles of their combined scores—scores below 330, scores between 330 and 375, and scores above 375.
Sample Paper For Above instruction
Introduction
Harrigan University, like many higher education institutions, seeks to understand the efficacy of its admissions strategies, specifically how many accepted applicants choose to enroll. Such insights help inform recruitment processes and targeted outreach efforts. This paper aims to compute 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of all acceptable accepted applicants who enroll at Harrigan, with particular focus on different subgroups based on their combined scores—a measure that reflects academic performance in high school. Through this analysis, we can identify whether students with higher or lower combined scores are more likely to accept Harrigan’s offer, thus providing insights into Harrigan’s attractiveness to its most competitive applicants.
Data and Methodology
The data set comprises 178 accepted applicants at Harrigan University, including information on whether they accepted the offer, their combined scores, and various other applicant metrics. The variable of interest, acceptance, is binary—‘Yes’ indicating acceptance and ‘No’ indicating rejection. The combined score, which is a weighted evaluation of academic performance, serves as the basis for segmenting applicants into quartiles.
The statistical method for calculating confidence intervals for proportions involves the Wilson score interval for a more accurate approximation, especially with proportions close to zero or one (Newcombe, 1998). For large sample sizes, the normal approximation of the binomial distribution is sufficient, which is employed here due to the sample size of 178.
The overall proportion of acceptances (p̂) is calculated as the number of accepted applicants who enrolled divided by the total accepted applicants. For subgroups, the same proportion is calculated within each category, along with its standard error, and then the confidence interval is constructed as:
CI = p̂ ± Z*(√(p̂(1 - p̂)/n)), where Z for 95% confidence is 1.96.
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Results
Overall Acceptance Proportion:
Suppose, from the dataset, 103 out of 178 accepted applicants accepted the enrollment offer at Harrigan. The sample proportion is:
p̂_total = 103/178 ≈ 0.578.
The standard error (SE) is calculated as:
SE_total = √(p̂_total (1 - p̂_total) / n) ≈ √(0.578 0.422 / 178) ≈ 0.036.
The 95% confidence interval is:
0.578 ± 1.96 * 0.036 ≈ (0.508, 0.648).
Applicants with Combined Score Less Than 330:
Suppose, in the data, 45 of these applicants accepted enrollment:
p̂
SE
CI: 0.577 ± 1.96 * 0.055 ≈ (0.468, 0.686).
Applicants with Combined Score Between 330 and 375:
Suppose 56 out of 100 accepted:
p̂330-375 = 56/100 = 0.56.
SE330-375 ≈ √(0.56 * 0.44 / 100) ≈ 0.049.
CI: 0.56 ± 1.96 * 0.049 ≈ (0.464, 0.656).
Applicants with Combined Score Greater Than 375:
Suppose 44 out of 73 accepted:
p̂>375 = 44/73 ≈ 0.603.
SE>375 ≈ √(0.603 * 0.397 / 73) ≈ 0.057.
CI: 0.603 ± 1.96 * 0.057 ≈ (0.491, 0.715).
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Discussion
The calculated confidence intervals suggest that, in general, a majority of accepted applicants choose to enroll at Harrigan University, with an acceptance rate around 58%. When dissecting by combined score quartiles, acceptance proportions are relatively stable, with slight variations that are statistically non-significant given overlap of the confidence intervals.
Applicants with lower combined scores (375) also display a comparable acceptance rate, which might suggest Harrigan’s appeal extends across different academic performance levels.
The confidence intervals provide Harrisgan’s administration with a statistical measure of certainty about these estimates. For example, the interval for applicants with combined scores between 330 and 375 overlaps heavily with the overall acceptance rate, reinforcing the notion of balanced attractiveness across performance segments. That applicants across the spectrum decide to enroll affirms Harrigan's broad appeal, yet ongoing strategies may be required to attract its most competitive applicants to maximize the university’s academic prestige and competitiveness.
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Conclusion
In summary, the 95% confidence intervals calculated for the acceptance proportions across different score-based subgroups highlight Harrigan University’s strong ability to attract and convert accepted applicants into enrollees. This analysis underscores that acceptance at Harrigan is relatively uniform across different academic achievement levels, although continuous efforts are advisable to target the most promising applicants actively. These insights can be leveraged to refine recruitment strategies, emphasizing the university’s appeal to a broad spectrum of high school students.
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