Determine Whether The Following Arguments Are Inductive

Determine Whether The Following Arguments Are Inductive G

Instructions: Determine whether the following arguments are inductive generalizations or analogical arguments. Identify the sample, target, property in question, or, for analogical arguments, identify the analogues (the sample and target, also called the terms of the comparison), the basis of the comparison, and the feature in question. Also identify any inductive fallacies from chapter 10 of your textbook (if there are fallacies, explain your reasoning). The Passages: 1. Stratton goes to his first day at classes at PCC and concludes he is going to like his anthropology course. “You can just tell,” he says to his girlfriend later, “it’s gonna be a great course. The teacher brought up all these interesting subjects, and it was just the first day!” 2. The cocktail Betsy that orders before dinner is watery, so she decides not to eat at the restaurant after all. “I don’t think they can make a decent dinner if they can’t even make a decent martini,” she mutters. 3. Stortz has heard from his friends that the folks in North Carolina are pretty friendly, so he looks forward to going through there on his bike trip. 4. Agnes has read that fair-skinned, blonde, blue-eyed people are more likely to develop problems from over-exposure to the sun, but she discounts these reports. “After all,” she reasons, “my Uncle Bob works outside all day on a boat, and I’ve never heard of him having problems with sun exposure, even though he is blonde, blue-eyed, and fair-skinned." 5. Mr. Al C. Holic reads a report in the newspaper that a daily glass of wine or two might be good for the heart, so he decides to get hammered. “Why in hell not,” he says. “If one glass of wine is good for you, then surely five or six is really good for you!” 6. Overheard: “You don’t think this country is in a slump? Get real. George here was laid off before Memorial Day, and Howie’s wife and a whole bunch of other people lost their jobs when the Safeway over on Jeffrey closed down. These are tough times.” 7. Fewer than 20% of college professors think of themselves as shy, according to a new study by two psychologists. “We were surprised by this result because other studies have reported almost 50% of adult Americans think of themselves as shy,” said Jane Smalley, professor at Chico State University. “College professors are sometimes considered an introverted group and so we expected perhaps a majority to think of themselves as shy,” she said. Smalley and her associate John Mason interviewed 150 college professors who were identified by their deans and other administrators at 25 American universities as “typical” faculty. The universities were selected by a random procedure from a list of American colleges and universities. 8. Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She’s thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in whatever she takes. Suppose that when she took the previous courses, Juanita had done all her studying alone because she didn’t know any of the other students at Valley but that now she knows several good students and plans to study with them when she takes her next course. Would her argument be stronger or weaker than if she were planning to study alone? Discuss. 9. A random survey of 1000 callers to a drug-help hotline produced the following results: 535 of the callers were heavy users of cocaine freebase, amphetamines, or heroin; 220 were “recreational” users of cocaine or marijuana, 92 were not drug users at all, and the remainder refused to answer. This survey proves that most people who use drugs are not of the “recreational” type. 10. Goldman may have won the Supervisor of the Year award, but that just means they didn’t look very hard for a winner. I know a couple of people who work in Goldman’s division and they say that he’s a real pain to work for. I’d sooner trust my friends than some awards committee.

Paper For Above instruction

The provided passages depict a variety of inductive arguments, each aiming to infer generalizations or draw conclusions based on specific observations or hearsay. Distinguishing between inductive generalizations and analogical arguments lies in understanding whether the argument infers a property from a sample to a target group or makes a comparison between two analogous entities concerning a property. Additionally, it's vital to assess whether any fallacies or weak inductive reasoning patterns are present, as outlined in chapter 10 of the relevant textbook.

Analysis of Arguments

1. Stratton’s First Day at Classes

This argument is an inductive generalization. Stratton observes his positive impressions of the first day in an anthropology course and concludes he will like the course overall. The sample here is the first-day experience, and the property in question is liking the course. The inference relies on the assumption that initial impressions and the types of topics introduced predict overall enjoyment, which can be a weak basis if the first day isn’t representative. A potential fallacy here is hasty generalization, where a broad conclusion about the course quality is drawn from limited initial evidence.

2. Betsy’s Martini Observation

This argument is a causal inference based on a sample: Betsy’s experience with a watery cocktail leads her to conclude the restaurant cannot make decent Dinner. This is not a typical inductive generalization but an anecdotal inference. The sample is one cocktail, and the property is the quality of the restaurant’s cooking. A fallacy here might be false dilemma, assuming the restaurant’s overall quality based solely on one experience.

3. Stortz’s Expectation About North Carolina

This is an inductive generalization. Stortz’s inference about North Carolina being friendly relies on hearsay from friends—sample: friends’ reports, property: friendliness of North Carolinians. The target is the entire state. While hearsay can be informative, it is a weak basis for generalization because personal impressions or limited sources may not accurately reflect reality, risking hasty generalization fallacy.

4. Agnes’ Discounting Sun Exposure Reports

This is an argument from analogy, although it resembles an inductive reasoning pattern. Agnes compares her Uncle Bob’s lack of sun problems despite his sun exposure — an analogy between her uncle’s experience and the general properties of fair-skinned individuals. The basis of comparison is Uncle Bob’s outdoor activity versus the general claim. Since her conclusion dismisses scientific reports based on a single anecdote, it contains an overgeneralization fallacy, or possibly cherry-picking data.

5. Mr. Holic’s Reasoning on Drinking Wine

This is an inductive fallacy, specifically an overgeneralization. He infers that because one glass of wine might be good, multiple glasses are better. The property is the health benefit of wine, and the sample is the single report suggesting moderate consumption is good. The fallacy is assuming an increased quantity increases benefit without evidence, leading to the false cause or correlation fallacy.

6. Overheard Comment on Economic Slump

This is an inductive argument, arguing that the country is in a slump based on specific recent layoffs. The sample includes George, Howie’s wife, and others losing jobs; the property is economic downturn evidenced by layoffs. This argument can be considered a hasty generalization if the layoffs aren’t representative of the entire economy, but the pattern of job losses supports the inference reasonably well, provided the sample is sufficient.

7. Study on Professors’ Shyness

Here, a statistical inductive generalization is made. The sample includes 150 professors selected randomly from 25 universities; the property is the proportion of professors who see themselves as shy. Given the random selection and reasonable sample size, this is a relatively strong generalization to the population of American college professors. Potential fallacy could be a sampling bias if the sample isn’t representative, but this seems unlikely given the methodology.

8. Juanita’s Study Strategy

This is an inference about the strength of her argument; whether studying with good students improves her grade. Comparing her previous situation (studying alone) versus studying with good students (likely a better study environment), the inference is that integration with good students would make her argument stronger. This isn’t a formal inductive argument but a hypothetical comparison, with the reasoning leaning toward strengthening her case based on better resources, which has logical support.

9. Drug-Use Survey

This is an inductive statistical argument. The sample of 1000 callers indicates that most drug users are not recreational users, as heavy users outnumber recreational ones. The sample size supports a generalization about the population of drug users, but the sample’s self-selected nature and potential bias (callers to a help hotline) might weaken its representativeness, risking a sampling bias fallacy.

10. Goldman’s Award and Work Environment

This is an argument from anecdotal evidence and counterexamples, suggesting Goldman did not truly deserve the award. The sample includes acquaintances’ negative opinions, and the property is the actual quality of Goldman's work environment. This informal argument hinges on anecdotal fallacies, possibly attacking the person (ad hominem) rather than the award’s merit directly.

Conclusion

Most of these arguments exemplify inductive reasoning patterns with varying strengths based on their sample selection, relevance, and the nature of the inference. Arguments based on small or anecdotal samples risk fallacies like hasty generalization or cherry-picking, whereas well-designed surveys with random samples, such as the study on professors, produce more reliable inductive generalizations. Recognizing these patterns and their fallacies allows for more critical evaluation of everyday reasoning, which is crucial in philosophical and empirical debates.

References

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