Discussion Assignments Will Be Graded Based On The Cr 842175

Discussion Assignments Will Be Graded Based Upon The Criteria And Rubr

Discussion assignments will be graded based upon the criteria and rubric specified in the Syllabus. For this Discussion Question, complete the following. 1. Read the two articles below that discuss why fuel prices fluctuate. Research two of these types further. 2. Locate two JOURNAL articles which discuss this topic further. You need to focus on the Abstract, Introduction, Results, and Conclusion. For our purposes, you are not expected to fully understand the Data and Methodology. 3. Summarize these journal articles. Please use your own words. No copy-and-paste. Cite your sources. 4. This is due by 11:55pm on the deadline specified in the Course Schedule. 5. During the second week of the Module, you will need to reply to the posts of two of your peers. Your replies must focus on increasing knowledge of the class and must advance the discussion further. Simply affirming your peers does not count as a substantive reply. 6. The replies are due by the deadline specified in the Course Schedule. Please post (in APA format) your article citation.

Paper For Above instruction

The fluctuation of fuel prices is a complex phenomenon influenced by multiple economic, political, and environmental factors. Understanding these causes is crucial for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and consumers to adapt to these changes efficiently. This paper synthesizes the insights from two journal articles that delve into the causes behind fuel price volatility and explores avenues for further research.

The first article by Baumeister and Kilian (2016) chronicles forty years of oil price fluctuations, emphasizing that despite increased understanding, oil prices remain unpredictable and prone to surprise. They identify political shocks in oil-producing countries as primary catalysts for price swings, alongside technological advances in extraction and alterations in global economic cycles. Their analysis reveals that real-time declines in oil prices are often predictable, stemming from demand shocks caused by global economic slowdowns or geopolitical instability. For example, negative demand shocks—triggered by economic downturns—lead to decreased oil consumption, subsequently lowering prices. Conversely, unexpected surges in demand cause prices to rise unexpectedly (Baumeister & Kilian, 2016). The authors argue that political instability, supply-demand mismatches, and erroneous forecasts significantly influence price volatility.

The second article by Prest (2018) examines the 2014 oil price decline, questioning whether it was driven predominantly by supply or demand factors. The research indicates that oversupply, driven by increased production from non-traditional sources such as shale oil, played a dominant role. This supply surge, coupled with declining global demand due to economic deceleration in major markets, contributed to the steep fall in prices. Prest emphasizes that market expectations and speculative behaviors further exacerbate fluctuations, highlighting the importance of accurately forecasting economic trends and supply conditions to predict future prices. Collectively, these articles underscore that fuel prices are affected by a confluence of geopolitical, technological, and macroeconomic factors, with demand-supply dynamics being central.

The overarching conclusion from both articles emphasizes the unpredictability inherent in fuel markets. Political uncertainties in oil-producing regions, technological shifts in extraction, and economic cycles significantly influence fuel price fluctuations. Accurate prediction remains challenging due to the multitude of interacting variables, but understanding each factor's role enhances the ability to anticipate potential shifts. Future research could focus on developing more sophisticated models that incorporate these multifaceted influences, especially considering emerging alternative energy sources and geopolitical instability.

References

• Baumeister, C., & Kilian, L. (2016). Forty years of oil price fluctuations: Why the price of oil may still surprise us. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(1), 139–160.
• Prest, B. C. (2018). Explanations for the 2014 oil price decline: Supply or demand? Energy Economics, 74, 63–75.
• Charlier, D., & Kahouli, S. (2019). From Residential Energy Demand to Fuel Poverty: Income-induced Non-linearities in the Reactions of Households to Energy Price Fluctuations. Energy Journal, 40(2), 101–137.
• Blazquez, J., Martin-Moreno, J. M., Perez, R., & Ruiz, J. (2017). Fossil Fuel Price Shocks and CO2 Emissions: The Case of Spain. Energy Journal, 38(6), 161–176.
• Weitere Literatur, die weitere Erkenntnisse zu globalen Energiepreisschwankungen bietet.