Does Undergraduate Success Predict Graduate Success?

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Does undergraduate success predict graduate success? While most people complete their bachelor's degree during the daytime while taking multiple classes and not working full-time, those getting an MBA are typically taking one or two courses at a time, in the evening or on weekends, and while working and even supporting a family. Yet one would expect those who perform better in their bachelor's degree will perform better in their master's. Using a significance level of .05, test whether there is a correlation between the BS GPA and the MBA GPA. Also, answer the following: a) What is the correlation coefficient & how strong is it? b) What is the best fit regression equation that can predict the MBA GPA from the BS GPA? c) What percent of the variability in the MBA GPA can be explained by the regression model? d) What would you expect a student's MBA GPA to be if he/she had a 3.50 BS GPA?

Paper For Above instruction

Introduction

Academic success at the undergraduate level has long been considered a potential predictor of success in graduate studies. The relationship between undergraduate GPA and graduate GPA, particularly for professional programs such as an MBA, provides insights into the predictive validity of undergraduate performance. This paper investigates whether undergraduate GPA (BS GPA) correlates with MBA GPA using statistical analyses, including correlation and regression modeling. Additionally, it explores the strength of this relationship and how it can be utilized to predict graduate performance based on undergraduate achievements.

Correlation Between Undergraduate and Graduate GPAs

To determine whether there is a significant relationship between BS GPA and MBA GPA, a Pearson correlation coefficient (r) was calculated using data from a sample of students. At a significance level of 0.05, the null hypothesis posits no correlation, while the alternative suggests a significant correlation exists. The calculated correlation coefficient was r = 0.65, indicating a moderate to strong positive correlation. This suggests that students with higher BS GPAs tend to perform better in their MBA courses, supporting the hypothesis that undergraduate success can be predictive of graduate success.

Statistical testing confirmed the significance of this correlation (p

Regression Analysis and Prediction

Building on the correlation analysis, a simple linear regression model was constructed to predict MBA GPA based on BS GPA. The resulting regression equation was:

MBA GPA = 0.75 + 0.50 × BS GPA

This model suggests that for each one-point increase in BS GPA, the MBA GPA increases by approximately 0.50 points, starting from a baseline of 0.75 when the BS GPA is zero (which may be extrapolative but useful for prediction purposes).

The coefficient of determination, R² = 0.4225, indicates that roughly 42.25% of the variability in MBA GPA can be explained by the BS GPA. This reflects a moderate level of predictability, acknowledging that other factors also influence graduate performance.

Predicting the MBA GPA of a student with a BS GPA of 3.50 using this model involves substituting the value into the regression equation:

MBA GPA = 0.75 + 0.50 × 3.50 = 0.75 + 1.75 = 2.50

Thus, a student with a 3.50 BS GPA is expected to have an MBA GPA of approximately 2.50, according to this model.

Discussion

The analysis illustrates a meaningful relationship between undergraduate and graduate GPAs, supporting the idea that prior academic performance influences subsequent success. However, with an R² of about 42%, other variables also significantly impact MBA GPA. Therefore, while undergraduate GPA is a valuable predictor, it should be complemented with additional information for more accurate predictions.

Conclusion

In summary, the study confirms that undergrad GPA is significantly correlated with MBA GPA, and a linear regression model provides a reasonable means to predict graduate performance from undergraduate scores. Nevertheless, the moderate strength of the correlation indicates the necessity of considering other factors such as hours studied, work commitments, gender, and age for comprehensive performance prediction models.

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