Estimating Problem Week 41 And Week 43 Barbara Ju ✓ Solved

Pm Wk 41pm Wk 43the Estimating Problembarbara Ju

Identify the core assignment task, eliminate any extraneous instructions, and distill it into a clear, concise prompt. The task requires analyzing different estimating techniques, decision criteria for selecting estimates, and choosing an appropriate estimate as a project manager.

Assignment Instructions: How many different estimating techniques were discussed in the case? If each estimate is different, how does a project manager decide that one estimate is better than another? If you were the project manager, which estimate would you use?

Sample Paper For Above instruction

The process of project estimating is crucial in project management because it directly influences planning, budgeting, and scheduling. As illustrated in the case involving Barbara, different estimating techniques can yield varying results, which poses a challenge to project managers in selecting the most reliable estimate. This essay discusses the estimating techniques mentioned in the case, criteria to determine the best estimate, and ultimately, the choice a project manager should make based on these factors.

Estimating Techniques Discussed in the Case

The case explicitly describes three primary estimating techniques used for project work packages. The first is the three-point estimate, which considers optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic durations, assigning weights to each scenario. This technique is common in Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) analysis, aiming to account for uncertainty by combining different time estimates (PMI, 2017). In the case, the three-point estimate provides a duration of thirteen weeks based on the calculation, considering equal likelihood for each estimate. However, the estimating group did not interpret the complexity factor within this model, leading to underestimating the required time.

The second technique discussed is the triangular distribution, an extension of three-point estimating where each of the three estimates has an equal chance of occurrence. Using the triangular distribution, the estimate averaged to approximately thirteen weeks, aligning more closely with Barbara’s experience-based estimate of fourteen weeks (Kerzner, 2017). This technique is often employed when there is limited data but an assumption that all three estimates are equally plausible within a range.

The third method mentioned is analogy estimating, which involves comparing the current project or work package to previous similar projects, with adjustments for factors unique to the current work. Peter emphasizes that considering project complexity is vital, and in this case, analogy estimating suggests a duration of 16–17 weeks for the task. This technique relies heavily on historical data and expert judgment to produce more tailored estimates, especially valuable when complexity significantly impacts the project timeline (Fleming & Koppelman, 2016).

Deciding Which Estimate is Better

The case demonstrates that when multiple estimates vary significantly, a project manager must evaluate the basis and assumptions behind each. The three-point estimate used by the estimating group appears to ignore project complexity, leading to an overly optimistic duration of 13 weeks. Conversely, Peter’s expert judgment, based on analogy estimating and consideration of technical complexity, recommends 16–17 weeks. Therefore, the quality and relevance of data sources, incorporation of project complexity, the experience of estimators, and historical performance become critical in assessing which estimate is more dependable.

In practice, selecting the best estimate involves weighing these factors against project constraints and risks. A conservative estimate, such as Peter’s, might be preferable if the project’s success depends on accuracy to prevent penalties linked to late completion. Conversely, overly optimistic estimates can lead to schedule overruns, increased costs, and stakeholder dissatisfaction (PMI, 2017). Tools like Monte Carlo simulation or sensitivity analysis can also aid in assessing the robustness of estimates under uncertainty, reinforcing the importance of understanding the assumptions behind each estimate.

Which Estimate Would You Use as a Project Manager?

If I were the project manager in this scenario, I would favor the estimate based on analogy estimating, which suggests a duration of 16–17 weeks. While the initial proposal's 12-week estimate appears aligned with the bid, it underestimates the true effort considering project complexity. Relying on past projects and expert judgment provides a more realistic timeline, minimizing the risk of late delivery and penalties (Fleming & Koppelman, 2016). Moreover, incorporating contingency buffers and revisiting estimates as the project progresses would be prudent to accommodate unforeseen challenges.

Balancing accuracy, risk, and stakeholder expectations, the analogy estimate aligns more closely with the project’s technical and organizational context. Given the project’s complexity and the importance of meeting deadlines, adopting an estimate reflective of expert judgment and historical data enhances decision-making and project success.

References

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• Kerzner, H. (2017). Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling. Wiley.
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