Every Day 17% Of US Population Has Internet Access

Every Day 17 Of The Us Population With Internet Access Checks The

Every day, 17% of the U.S. population with Internet access checks the weather in that way. For a sample of 5 people taken on any given day: Construct a table of the binomial probability distribution for this case. View this information using a histogram. Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation for this distribution. Calculate the probability that at least 3 people in the sample checked the weather that day.

According to a recent infographic (NAMI: National Alliance on Mental Illness, n.d.), "1 in 20 U.S. adults experience serious mental illness" in the United States. If a random sample of 20 students is selected from a large school district, construct a table of the binomial probability distribution for this case. View this information using a histogram. Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation for this distribution. If 3 of the students were diagnosed with serious mental illness, would this be a signal about the school district having a problem with mental health among the students being above the national score?

Paper For Above instruction

The analysis of binomial probability distributions provides valuable insights into the likelihood of specific outcomes within defined scenarios. In these cases, we examine two distinct situations: the frequency of U.S. internet users checking the weather and the prevalence of serious mental illness among students in a school district. Both scenarios are modeled using binomial distributions to determine probabilities, expectations, and potential signals of underlying issues.

Scenario 1: U.S. Population Checking the Weather

Given that 17% of the U.S. population with internet access check the weather daily, the probability (p) of an individual doing so is 0.17, and the sample size (n) is 5. The binomial distribution describes the probability of k successes (people checking the weather) in n independent trials, with each trial having success probability p. The probability mass function (PMF) is expressed as:

P(k) = C(n, k) p^k (1-p)^(n-k)

where C(n, k) is the binomial coefficient "n choose k".

Constructing the Binomial Distribution Table

The probabilities for k = 0 to 5 are calculated as follows:

  • P(0) = C(5, 0) 0.17^0 0.83^5 ≈ 0.373
  • P(1) = C(5, 1) 0.17^1 0.83^4 ≈ 0.408
  • P(2) = C(5, 2) 0.17^2 0.83^3 ≈ 0.169
  • P(3) = C(5, 3) 0.17^3 0.83^2 ≈ 0.043
  • P(4) = C(5, 4) 0.17^4 0.83^1 ≈ 0.006
  • P(5) = C(5, 5) 0.17^5 0.83^0 ≈ 0.0004

These probabilities can be visualized in a histogram to depict the distribution of how many people out of five are likely to check the weather.

Calculating the Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

The mean (μ) of a binomial distribution is calculated as:

μ = n p = 5 0.17 = 0.85

The variance (σ²) is:

σ² = n p (1 - p) = 5 0.17 0.83 ≈ 0.706

The standard deviation (σ) is:

σ = √0.706 ≈ 0.84

Probability that At Least 3 People Checked the Weather

The probability that at least 3 people checked the weather is the sum of probabilities for k = 3, 4, 5:

P(k ≥ 3) = P(3) + P(4) + P(5) ≈ 0.043 + 0.006 + 0.0004 ≈ 0.0494

Thus, there is approximately a 4.94% chance that three or more people out of five checked the weather on any given day.

Scenario 2: Population with Serious Mental Illness

The statistic from NAMI indicates that approximately 1 in 20 U.S. adults experience serious mental illness, implying a probability (p) of 0.05 for each individual. When selecting a sample of 20 students (n=20), we model this using a binomial distribution where success is a student diagnosed with a mental illness.

Constructing the Binomial Distribution Table

The probabilities P(k) for k = 0 to 20 are calculated. For brevity, key probabilities are outlined:

  • P(0) ≈ C(20,0)0.05^00.95^20 ≈ 0.358
  • P(1) ≈ C(20,1)0.05^10.95^19 ≈ 0.377
  • P(2) ≈ C(20,2)0.05^20.95^18 ≈ 0.189
  • P(3) ≈ C(20,3)0.05^30.95^17 ≈ 0.056

Similarly, the distribution can be fully tabulated, but computational software or statistical tables facilitate precise calculations for the entire range.

Calculating the Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

The mean number of students with serious mental illness in this sample is:

μ = n p = 20 0.05 = 1

The variance is:

σ² = n p (1 - p) = 20 0.05 0.95 = 0.95

The standard deviation is:

σ = √0.95 ≈ 0.975

Interpreting the Observed 3 Cases

If 3 students out of 20 are diagnosed with serious mental illness, this exceeds the expected average of 1. While natural variation exists, we assess whether this result is statistically significant enough to signal a potential concern. Comparing the observed value with the distribution's parameters indicates that observing 3 cases (which is about 3 standard deviations above the mean) could be considered unusual, hinting at a possible rise in mental health issues in this district. However, rigorous hypothesis testing, such as calculating a z-score and p-value, is needed to confirm whether this is a significant deviation or within normal fluctuation.

Conclusion

Both scenarios utilize the binomial distribution to estimate probabilities and assess whether observed outcomes are typical or signal potential issues. The probability calculations reveal that for the weather-checking behavior, such events are relatively rare but not unexpected, while for mental health diagnoses, an observed count significantly above the mean warrants further investigation. Proper statistical analysis enables educators, health officials, and policy makers to identify and respond to emerging trends effectively.

References

  • NAMI: National Alliance on Mental Illness. (n.d.). Mental health data and statistics. Retrieved from https://www.nami.org
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