Greenhouse Gases And Global Warming: Correlation Or Causatio

Greenhouse Gases And Global Warming Correlation Causation Or Merely

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) and global warming: correlation, causation or merely spurious reasoning? After reviewing these exemplars of evidence and assessment on GHG emissions, rising temperatures, and melting polar regions and glaciers, create an initial response post that addresses the questions below. You must draw on and cite evidence from the readings in your initial post, particularly those findings and analyses in official governmental publications. You should use numeric and/or graphic evidence from these sources to draw your inferences about what is occurring and what may be causally related. You should be explicit when you draw logical inferences from the data presented in the readings, and you should take care to weigh the evidence you present in your own assessment.

In your review of the official governmental reports from the IPCC, International Energy Agency, and the US National Climate Assessment you assimilated many specific facts and graphs depicting trend lines on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and rising temperatures.

In addition to these, you read the views of Bradshaw, Mann, Silverberg, Lemonick, and the World Meteorological Association preliminary assessment of 2017, while also viewing the Stephen Schneider abridged talk on the scientific method and relative certainty about climate change and its causes. In the “debate” between the skeptics of human-caused climate change and other scientists, Schneider finds "utter distortion," a "cacophonous fraudulent debate." After reviewing where the balance of credibility and evidence lies, you are to assess what may seem a clear causal relationship but could in fact be correlation or mere spurious reasoning. For example, rising greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations seem to cause rising temperatures and melting ice formations, but the addition of snowfall in the eastern Antarctic complicates a global judgment that the correlation of warming and melt leads to a conclusion that one is causing the other and is not merely associated or correlated with its incidence.

Please respond to the following questions: In your considered opinion, is global warming taking place? Are temperature warming trends and ice melting trends merely correlated with increased GHG emissions and concentrations, or are they caused by the latter?

Paper For Above instruction

Global warming has become one of the most pressing environmental issues of the 21st century, with widespread scientific consensus indicating that it is primarily driven by human activities, notably the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper examines whether the observed rise in global temperatures and melting ice formations are causally linked to increased GHG concentrations or merely correlated, considering evidence from authoritative governmental reports and expert analyses.

Based on data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the US National Climate Assessment (NCA), there is a robust body of evidence demonstrating a clear upward trend in GHG emissions since the mid-20th century. For instance, the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report highlights that atmospheric CO₂ concentrations increased from approximately 280 parts per million (ppm) in pre-industrial times to over 410 ppm today, closely correlating with a rise in global mean surface temperatures (IPCC, 2014). Furthermore, graphs from the NCA illustrate that the last four decades have consistently shown warming trends, with the global surface temperature increasing by approximately 1.2°C since 1880 (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017). Such data suggest a strong association between increased GHG concentrations and rising temperatures.

While correlation is evident, establishing causation requires understanding the mechanisms involved. GHGs trap infrared radiation emitted from Earth’s surface—a process well understood in climate science—leading to the greenhouse effect. Climate models simulate that without elevated GHGs, global temperatures would be significantly lower, and the observed warming aligns with predictions based on increased GHG concentrations (Foster & Rahmstorf, 2011). The scientific community considers this causal link strong, supported by paleo-climatic data showing that past climate shifts have corresponded with variations in GHG levels (Shindell et al., 2012). The principle of causality is further supported by the fact that regions with higher increases in GHGs, such as the Arctic, experience disproportionately higher warming, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (Serreze & Barry, 2011).

However, some phenomena complicate a straightforward causal inference. Notably, the phenomenon of snow accumulation in parts of eastern Antarctica appears to temporarily offset or mask certain warming signals. The presence of snowfall and ice accumulation in some regions introduces variability in local ice melt data, which some interpret as evidence against direct causality between GHGs and ice loss. Nonetheless, multiple peer-reviewed studies reveal that net ice mass loss in polar regions is consistent with warming temperatures driven by increased GHGs, and the observed acceleration in ice sheet melt since the 1990s aligns with rising global temperatures (Rignot et al., 2019; Shepherd et al., 2018).

The scientific debate often highlighted by skeptics emphasizes uncertainties and potential spurious correlations. Stephen Schneider’s analysis of the scientific method underscores the importance of weighing evidence and considering probable causality over mere association. In this context, the accumulation of evidence favors a causal relationship between GHG emissions and global warming rather than a spurious correlation. The observed temperature increases are not random coincidences but are directly linked to the enhanced greenhouse effect predicted by climate models and supported by paleoclimatic records (Hansen et al., 2010).

In conclusion, the preponderance of scientific evidence indicates that global warming is indeed taking place, driven predominantly by increased emissions of GHGs from human activities. While some local or regional variations exist—such as the snowfall in eastern Antarctica—these do not undermine the overall causal link. Instead, they highlight the complex variability inherent in climate systems. Therefore, the association between GHG concentrations and rising temperatures and ice melt is not merely correlative but supported by a scientifically established causal mechanism, reaffirming the urgent need for mitigation efforts to curb GHG emissions and limit further climate change impacts.

References

• Foster, G., & Rahmstorf, S. (2011). Global temperature evolution: recent trends and forcings. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(51), 19823–19826.
• Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., et al. (2010). Global surface temperature change. Reviews of Geophysics, 48(4), RG4004.
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. IPCC.
• Rignot, E., et al. (2019). Four decades of Antarctic ice mass loss from satellite observations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(4), 1095-1103.
• Serreze, M.C., & Barry, R.G. (2011). Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis. Global and Planetary Change, 77(1-2), 85-96.
• Shepherd, A., et al. (2018). Mass balance of Polar Ice Sheets. Science, 366(6461), 989-994.
• Shindell, D., et al. (2012). The influence of greenhouse gases, volcanic eruptions, and land use on 20th-century climate. Nature Geoscience, 5(10), 741–747.
• U.S. Global Change Research Program. (2017). Fourth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Government Printing Office.
• World Meteorological Organization. (2017). WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2017. WMO.
• Bradshaw, C.J.A., et al. (2015). Limits to the predictability of climate change impacts on terrestrial biodiversity. Nature Climate Change, 5(9), 771-776.