In A Study Of The Income Of US Factory Workers: A Random Sam

In A Study Of The Income Of US Factory Workers A Random Sample O

In a study of the income of U.S. factory workers, a random sample of 100 workers shows a sample mean of $35,000. Assume that the population standard deviation is $4,500, and that the population is normally distributed. A) Compute the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals for the unknown population mean. B) Briefly discuss what happens to the width of the interval estimate as the confidence level increases. Why does this seem reasonable?

In a study of the starting salary of college graduates with degrees in Accounting, a random sample of 40 graduates shows a sample mean of $36,000 and a sample standard deviation of $2,500. Assume that the population is normally distributed. A) Compute and explain a 95% confidence interval estimate of the population mean starting salary for Accounting graduates.

A telephone poll of 900 American adults asked "where would you rather go in your spare time?" One response, by 250 adults, was "a movie." Compute and explain a 95% confidence interval estimate of the proportion of all American adults who would respond "a movie."

Paper For Above instruction

The construction and interpretation of confidence intervals are fundamental concepts in inferential statistics, allowing researchers and analysts to estimate population parameters based on sample data. This paper discusses the calculations of confidence intervals for population mean and proportions, illustrating how variations in confidence levels influence the width of the intervals and their implications in practical scenarios.

Confidence Interval for Population Mean: Factory Workers Income

The first problem centers on estimating the true mean income of U.S. factory workers based on a sample of 100 workers. Given that the population standard deviation is known and sample data is normally distributed, the confidence interval can be directly calculated using the z-distribution.

The sample mean (\(\bar{x}\)) is $35,000, and the population standard deviation (\(\sigma\)) is $4,500. For a 90% confidence level, the z-value is approximately 1.645; for 95%, approximately 1.96; and for 99%, approximately 2.576. The formula for the confidence interval is:

CI = \(\bar{x} \pm Z_{\alpha/2} \times \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\)

Calculating each:

  • 90% CI: \(35,000 \pm 1.645 \times \frac{4,500}{\sqrt{100}} = 35,000 \pm 1.645 \times 450 = 35,000 \pm 740.25\), which yields (34,259.75, 35,740.25).
  • 95% CI: \(35,000 \pm 1.96 \times 450 = 35,000 \pm 882\), resulting in (34,118, 35,882).
  • 99% CI: \(35,000 \pm 2.576 \times 450 = 35,000 \pm 1,159.2\), resulting in (33,840.8, 36,159.2).

These intervals give a range where the true population mean income is likely to lie with specified confidence. As the confidence level increases, the z-value increases, resulting in a wider interval that reflects greater uncertainty about the estimate.

This behavior is reasonable because a higher confidence level demands a broader range to ensure the true parameter is included, embodying the trade-off between precision and confidence.

Confidence Interval for Population Mean: College Graduate Salaries

The second problem involves estimating the mean starting salary of accounting graduates, with a sample size of 40. Since the population standard deviation is unknown and the sample size is relatively small, a t-distribution must be used.

The sample mean is $36,000, the sample standard deviation is $2,500, and degrees of freedom are 39. The critical t-value for a 95% confidence interval with 39 degrees of freedom is approximately 2.022. The formula becomes:

CI = \(\bar{x} \pm t_{\alpha/2, df} \times \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\)

Calculation:

  • Margin of error: \(2.022 \times \frac{2,500}{\sqrt{40}} = 2.022 \times 395.28 \approx 799.4.\)
  • Confidence interval: \(36,000 \pm 799.4 = (35,200.6, 36,799.4).\)

This interval suggests that the true average starting salary for accounting graduates is likely between approximately $35,201 and $36,799. with 95% confidence, offering valuable insights for educational institutions and policy makers.

Confidence Interval for Population Proportion: Response to Survey Question

The third problem addresses estimating the proportion of American adults who would choose "a movie" in their spare time, based on a sample of 900, with 250 respondents selecting that option. The sample proportion is \(p̂ = 250/900 \approx 0.278\).

The formula for a confidence interval for a proportion is:

CI = \(p̂ \pm Z_{\alpha/2} \times \sqrt{\frac{p̂(1-p̂)}{n}}\)

Using a 95% confidence level, z-value is approximately 1.96.

Calculating the standard error:

\(\sqrt{\frac{0.278 \times 0.722}{900}} \approx \sqrt{\frac{0.201} {900}} \approx 0.015

Margin of error: \(1.96 \times 0.015 \approx 0.029\).

The confidence interval becomes:

(0.278 - 0.029, 0.278 + 0.029) = (0.249, 0.307)

Thus, we are 95% confident that the actual proportion of all American adults who prefer "a movie" lies between approximately 24.9% and 30.7%. This interval helps gauge public preferences with quantifiable certainty, informing media and entertainment planning.

Discussion on Changes in Interval Width with Confidence Levels

Increasing the confidence level from 90% to 99% broadens the confidence interval, reflecting increased certainty about capturing the true parameter. This expansion occurs because higher confidence requires a larger critical value (z or t) to encompass a greater range of data, thereby increasing the margin of error. While wider intervals provide more assurance, they also decrease precision, highlighting a fundamental trade-off in statistical estimation. Practitioners must balance the need for confidence with the desire for narrower, more precise estimates based on context and the consequences of estimation errors.

Conclusion

Understanding confidence intervals is integral to statistical inference, allowing analysts to communicate the reliability of sample estimates. Whether estimating population means or proportions, the principles of selecting appropriate distributions, calculating margins of error, and interpreting resulting intervals underpin sound decision-making in research, policy, and business. As demonstrated through the examples, as confidence levels increase, so does the interval width, reinforcing the importance of selecting the right confidence level for specific objectives and tolerances for uncertainty.

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