Japolli Bakery Sells A Variety Of Bread Types

Japolli Bakery Makes A Variety Of Bread Types That It Sells To Superma

Japolli Bakery makes a variety of bread types that it sells to supermarket chains in the area. One of the problems is that the number of loaves of each type of bread sold each day by the chain stores varies considerably, making it difficult to know how many loaves to bake. A sample of daily demand data is contained in the file, Japolli Bakery. Develop a frequency distribution for each bread type using appropriate intervals. Select which bread type has the greatest and lowest relative variability.

Assuming that these sample data are representative of demand during the year, determine how many loaves of each type of bread should be made such that demand would be met on at least 75% of the days during the year.

Paper For Above instruction

Introduction

Efficient management of inventory and production planning are critical for bakery operations, particularly when variability in demand impacts supply chain decisions. Japolli Bakery faces the challenge of predicting daily demand for different bread types sold to supermarket chains, requiring analytical approaches to estimate production quantities that satisfy customer demand while minimizing waste and overproduction. This paper discusses the development of frequency distributions for various bread types, assesses the variability among demand patterns, and computes the production quantity necessary to meet demand with a 75% service level.

Developing Frequency Distributions of Demand Data

The initial step involves analyzing the demand data for each bread type collected over a sample period. Creating frequency distributions with appropriate class intervals allows for visualizing demand patterns, identifying common demand ranges, and understanding the variability. Typically, the data is grouped into classes or bins that capture the range of observed demand. For instance, if demand for a particular bread type varies from 20 to 100 loaves daily, the intervals might be set at regular counts such as 20–39, 40–59, 60–79, 80–100, depending on data dispersion.

Using tools like Excel, the demand data can be sorted, and class frequencies calculated, which illustrate how often demand falls within specific ranges. These distributions form the foundation for further statistical analysis, including calculation of measures like the mean, variance, and coefficient of variation to quantify demand variability.

Assessing Variability Across Bread Types

To determine which bread type exhibits the greatest and lowest relative variability, statistical measures are essential. The coefficient of variation (CV), calculated as the standard deviation divided by the mean, provides a normalized measure of variability. A higher CV indicates more variability relative to the average demand. By analyzing the CVs of different bread types, the bakery can identify which products have the most unpredictable demand patterns.

For instance, if Bread Type A has a mean demand of 50 loaves with a standard deviation of 10, then its CV is 0.20. Conversely, if Bread Type B has a mean of 80 loaves and a standard deviation of 24, its CV is 0.30, indicating higher relative variability. This analysis enables prioritization of forecasting and inventory strategies based on demand stability.

Determining Production Quantities for a 75% Service Level

Assuming the demand data accurately represents the entire yearly sales, the bakery needs to determine how many loaves of each bread type to produce to meet at least 75% of daily demand. This involves calculating the demand level corresponding to the 75th percentile, often derived from the demand distribution or by using statistical methods like the z-score approach in normal distribution assumptions.

For normal demand distributions, the 75th percentile (Q3) can be calculated as:

Q3 = mean + z_0.75 × standard deviation

where z_0.75 is approximately 0.674. The resulting value indicates the number of loaves to produce so that 75% of daily demands are met without stockouts. If demand distributions deviate significantly from normality, non-parametric methods or empirical percentiles from the data can be used for more accurate estimation.

Practical Implications and Conclusion

The analytical approach outlined enables Japolli Bakery to optimize production schedules, minimize waste, and ensure customer satisfaction. Developing frequency distributions for each bread type provides insight into demand patterns, while variability assessments prioritize forecasting efforts. Calculating production levels based on the 75th percentile support meeting customer needs with a high confidence level, balancing inventory costs and service quality. Ultimately, integrating statistical analysis into operational decision-making facilitates more reliable and efficient bakery management.

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