Online Education Thirty Years From Now The Big University Ca

Online Education Thirty Years From Now The Big University Campuses W

Online Education Thirty years from now the big University campuses will be relicts. Universities won’t survive. It is as large a change as when we first got the printed book. —Peter Drucker1

Introduction As the Internet had become yet another arrow in the quiver of educational institutions and in industries as diverse as elevator manufacturing and financial services, the above quote by Peter Drucker sounded, in January 2015 on the snowy campus of Ivey University, like a warning echoing from the past. Erica Wagner, dean of the School of Information Management, recalled the quote while scanning a recent article in Mashable, citing the recent LinkedIn acquisition of online education company Lynda.com for $1.5 billion.

The Internet and the competition of massive open online courses, or MOOCs, are making administrators like Dr. Wagner question themselves about the future of the institution and programs they had been entrusted to lead. Whereas these new online players seemed to have had minimal incremental effect on prestigious research universities such as Ivey, the future appeared far more uncertain for “middle-tier” institutions that may be required to increase the proportion of online learning compared to more traditional classroom teaching in order to lower their costs. Enrollment in undergraduate programs at Ivey was more selective than ever, due to rising demand. Campuses were teeming with construction workers developing new buildings, adding to existing ones, remodeling teaching and office space, equipping ever more sophisticated labs, and, most importantly it seemed, developing more parking space!

While the number of students in executive education programs had been declining steadily over the last decade, forcing the school to shorten some of its programs from five to three days, many blamed the recent recession for these results, others the competition of new players on nondegree executive education. However, as she pondered the future, Dr. Wagner recalled a passage from an article in The Economist that she had seen a few years before. The memory brought back some of her own uneasiness: “The innate conservatism of the academic profession does not help. The modern university was born in a very different world from the current one, a world where only a tiny minority of the population went into higher education, yet many academics have been reluctant to make any allowances for massification.” Was everyone missing the forest for the trees?

Was the Internet a disruptive technology in the education industry, simply brewing under the surface to soon blindside slow-to-react incumbents? Education and Research at Ivey Like its peers, Ivey University had a complex mission and a large community of stakeholders, ranging from students and faculty to alumni and the local and global community. At the highest level of analysis, Ivey performed two main activities: the creation of new knowledge (i.e., research) and the dissemination of knowledge (i.e., education). As a prestigious Research I institution, Ivey spent a considerable amount of resources supporting the development of new knowledge by hiring some of the brightest young faculty members and accomplished researchers.

Among its faculty it counted twelve Nobel Prize winners and boasted many world-class research centers. While the research mission was pursued in basement labs and offices throughout campus, the most evident manifestation of Ivey’s contribution to society was its teaching mission. A large school like the School of Information Management at Ivey University had truly global reach. Its largest population was about 2,200 undergraduate students. The school also trained master’s students, leaving the workforce for one or two years (a substantial opportunity cost on top of the direct costs of going back to school) to gain an advanced degree and the skills to accelerate their career.

Ivey had a medium size but a very selective master’s program, with about 300 students enrolled. Finally, the school educated the next generation of faculty and researchers by way of its PhD program. A very recognized brand in the business world, Ivey also offered a number of executive education and professional education programs. These were typically highly condensed courses, held on Ivey’s own campus or satellite locations, designed to serve the needs of corporations seeking to update the skills of their workforce or to offer working students a chance to access the wealth of knowledge that the school’s faculty had to offer without having to resign from their job.

Global Expansions Because of its brand recognition around the world, the School of Information Management and a number of other schools at Ivey had been focused on global expansion through partnerships and the opening of satellite campuses. The school had partners in Asia and Europe and was currently evaluating whether to enter the South American market. The reason for global expansion was simple: With the skyrocketing demand for high-quality education in emerging markets around the globe, there was great opportunity to extend the Ivey brand. Expansion was not without challenges, with revenue models being at times challenged and a myriad of logistics and quality assurance hurdles to be overcome. However, as with almost every other recognized education brand entering the new markets, a wait-and-see attitude could be extremely risky.

Online Players: A Real Threat or a Nuisance? Since Peter Drucker’s prediction, there had been a significant amount of development in online educational offerings. University of Phoenix, the largest for-profit institution, had about 250,000 students now, but they attained 600,000 enrollments only a few years ago. While quality concerns lingered, not just on prestigious university campuses, online universities seemed to be gaining traction. Perhaps even more interesting and threatening were open source content creation and delivery entities. The best example was offered by Coursera, the for-profit education platform that was the brainchild of Daphne Koller and Andrew Ng, who were offering their computer science courses online, drawing the attention of over 100,000 students.

Coursera, now backed by over $140 million in funding, had come a long way, giving access to 1,472 courses available to interested students from all over the world and a running count of over 16 million learners, 2 million course completions, and 136 university partners. Coursera was focused on academic courses in topics, ranging from math to science to history to the humanities, and it was originally geared to college students. As Dr. Koller put it, “Online education is a more effective way to teach basic facts and skills in part because students can learn at their own pace. Taking classes online gives people the opportunity to pause and reflect and grapple with the material.” Not all online educational offerings were by upstarts. Indeed, traditional universities had their own offerings, and Ivey itself had launched its own online education effort during the late 1990s: iIvey. While the number of courses offered at iIvey had slowly but steadily increased, and some of the school’s programs required them as prerequisites, the iIvey effort seemed to have lost steam after the bursting of the dot-com bubble. Yet with about forty courses available, a price tag between $1,000 and $1,500 per course, and a global reach, iIvey still offered quite a bit of potential, if nothing else, for revenue.

The Future As Dr. Wagner watched the snow drop a fresh dusting of white powder on the roof of the gothic buildings across the quad, she pondered some of the words of the article she read: Other industries next in line for disruption like education and health care would be wise to pay attention. Most of what they do depends on the control of information that will soon no longer be scarce. Education reformers have long predicted a world where top professors spread their knowledge across the globe through electronic tools. But the knowledge students need is not only located in those few professors’ minds. Once we digitize not just the distribution of knowledge but the production of it, the existing university system loses its raison d’etre. Why would people come to a single physical location at higher and higher costs when the knowledge it houses is no longer scarce? And the words of Dr. Koller in a recent WSJ article seemed to echo Drucker’s words: “School experience will be like turning the tap—and great education comes out for anybody. We’ll have data from hundreds of thousands, millions of people at a level that’s unprecedented. I think we’re at the cusp of a revolution of treating human learning as science.” Would this really happen? And how would it affect a top university like Ivey? As the dean of the School of Information Management, Dr. Wagner was not only entrusted with the future of the school she led but she also felt a responsibility to help the university community at large thrive in the network economy. Could Ivey miss the wave of the future? “Not on my watch!” Dr. Wagner told herself while getting ready for the first of many of the day’s meetings.

Discussion Questions

1. Do you agree with Peter Drucker’s opening quote?
2. Is the Internet a disruptive technology in the education industry in general? And for Ivey’s School of Information Management in particular?

Paper For Above instruction

The landscape of higher education is on the cusp of profound transformation, driven by technological advancements and shifting societal expectations. Peter Drucker’s assertion that university campuses will become relics in thirty years underscores a potential future where online education and digital dissemination of knowledge supplant traditional brick-and-mortar institutions. This paper explores the validity of Drucker’s quote, the disruptive role of the Internet in education generally, and specifically its impact on Ivey University’s School of Information Management.

Examining Drucker’s quote, there are compelling arguments supporting its plausibility. The technological evolution over the past three decades demonstrates an increasing capacity for digital platforms to deliver high-quality education at increasingly lower costs. Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), notably Coursera and edX, exemplify this shift by providing free or affordable access to diverse academic content from top universities worldwide. These platforms have attracted millions of learners, challenging the traditional exclusivity of university education. Moreover, the proliferation of digital content, combined with advanced AI-driven adaptive learning tools, suggests a future where physical campuses may no longer be necessary for broad access to education.

However, skepticism remains regarding the complete obsolescence of physical campuses. Universities fulfill roles beyond content delivery—they foster social interactions, networking, mentorship, and practical experiences that are difficult to replicate online. Yet, in the context of cost-efficiency and scalability, the trend towards online education is undeniable. For middle-tier institutions with declining enrollments and rising operational costs, online education offers a strategic advantage, allowing for expansion into global markets and cost reduction.

Regarding the Internet’s disruptive potential, Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation provides a relevant framework. Online education represents a disruptive technology because it initially targets underserved markets—those unable or unwilling to afford traditional university costs—by providing accessible, flexible, and scalable learning experiences. Over time, such platforms improve and begin to encroach on the core offerings of established universities.

For Ivey University’s School of Information Management, the implications are particularly salient. Known for its rigorous research and prestigious reputation, Ivey faces both opportunities and threats. The advent of online education and platforms like Coursera or Ivey’s own iIvey online course offerings have expanded access globally and created additional revenue streams. Nonetheless, they also pose a competitive threat by potentially diminishing the unique value proposition of exclusive campus-based education. To remain relevant, Ivey must embrace digital transformation by integrating online courses, leveraging data analytics for personalized learning, and fostering collaborative online communities.

Furthermore, Ivey’s global expansion efforts through international partnerships exemplify strategic adaptation to the evolving landscape. As digital tools facilitate virtual collaboration, the physical presence of satellite campuses may decline, leading to a more decentralized and flexible university model. This transition, however, requires significant investment in technology infrastructure, faculty training, and quality assurance mechanisms to maintain academic standards.

In conclusion, Drucker’s quote captures a plausible trajectory for higher education, where online platforms will increasingly supplement or replace traditional campuses. The Internet’s role as a disruptive technology is evident, presenting both challenges and opportunities for institutions like Ivey University. To thrive amidst this transformation, Ivey must proactively innovate by integrating online education, expanding its global digital footprint, and redefining the nature of its academic offerings to align with a digital future.

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