Prior To Beginning Work On This Discussion Forum Read 367645
Prior To Beginning Work On This Discussion Forum Read Chapter 9 Hypo
Prior to beginning work on this discussion forum, read Chapter 9: Hypothesis Testing. Apex Sports is considering entering the golf ball market. The company will make a profit if its market share exceeds 15%. A survey indicates that 128 out of 758 golf ball purchasers would buy an Apex Sports golf ball. In your initial post, answer the following questions: Is the market survey alone sufficient evidence to persuade Apex Sports to enter the golf ball market? How would you use hypothesis testing to help make this decision if you required 90% confidence? Does hypothesis testing support or not support entering the market? Show all your work. Besides the survey results, what other factors might influence the decision? If Apex Sports decides to enter, what are their probabilities of success?
Paper For Above instruction
Introduction
The decision for Apex Sports to enter the golf ball market hinges on an analysis of market research data and statistical inference. While a survey indicating that 128 out of 758 potential customers would purchase Apex's golf balls provides initial insight, making an informed decision requires rigorous hypothesis testing to evaluate whether the observed proportion exceeds the critical threshold of 15%. This paper discusses whether the survey data suffice as evidence, how to employ hypothesis testing with 90% confidence, and other considerations influencing the market entry decision. Ultimately, it also estimates the probabilities of success based on statistical analysis.
Assessing the Sufficiency of the Market Survey Data
The market survey shows that approximately 16.91% of potential consumers (128/758) would buy Apex’s golf ball, which appears to surpass the critical 15% threshold necessary for profitability. However, this raw percentage alone is insufficient for a final decision because survey data are subject to sampling variability. To determine whether this observed proportion provides convincing evidence that the true market share exceeds 15%, a formal hypothesis test must be conducted.
Hypothesis Testing Process
The null hypothesis (H₀) assumes that the true proportion of buyers in the population is equal to 15% (p = 0.15), while the alternative hypothesis (H₁) posits that the true proportion exceeds 15% (p > 0.15). Formally:
- H₀: p = 0.15
- H₁: p > 0.15
Given the sample size (n = 758) and the number of favorable responses (x = 128), the sample proportion (\(\hat{p}\)) is calculated as:
\[
\hat{p} = \frac{128}{758} \approx 0.1689
\]
The test statistic for a one-proportion z-test is:
\[
z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0 (1 - p_0)}{n}}}
\]
Substituting the values:
\[
z = \frac{0.1689 - 0.15}{\sqrt{\frac{0.15 \times 0.85}{758}}} \approx \frac{0.0189}{0.0126} \approx 1.50
\]
At a 90% confidence level (significance level \(\alpha = 0.10\)), the critical z-value for a one-tailed test is approximately 1.28. Since the calculated z-value (1.50) exceeds 1.28, we reject H₀ at the 90% confidence level.
Interpretation: The data provide sufficient evidence at the 90% confidence level to conclude that the true market share exceeds 15%, supporting the potential profitability of entering the market.
Additional Considerations
While the hypothesis testing indicates statistical support for market entry, several other factors must be considered:
- Market Conditions: Trends, industry growth, competitors' actions, and economic factors could influence actual market performance.
- Consumer Preferences: The survey reflects intentions, not guaranteed purchase behavior; actual conversion rates may differ.
- Cost Analysis: Manufacturing, marketing, distribution costs, and potential margins impact profitability.
- Brand Positioning: Apex Sports’ brand strength and market positioning can influence actual market share.
- Risks and Uncertainties: External risks, such as supplier stability or regulatory changes, could affect success.
Considering these factors ensures a comprehensive assessment beyond statistical evidence.
Probabilities of Success
Based on the hypothesis test, the probability that the true market share exceeds 15% is high (around 90%), based on the confidence level used. If Apex Sports proceeds, assuming the sample reflects the broader population, the likelihood of a successful market entry—defined by exceeding the threshold—is approximately 90%. However, real-world variations and potential deviations from sample data could alter this probability, emphasizing the importance of ongoing market analysis and risk management.
Conclusion
The market survey alone provides an initial promising signal, but formal hypothesis testing confirms with at least 90% confidence that the true market share exceeds 15%. Thus, statistically, entering the golf ball market is supported by the data, provided other strategic and financial considerations are favorable. Employing hypothesis testing enables Apex Sports to make informed, evidence-based decisions, reducing the risk of market entry under uncertainty.
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