Probability And Impact Matrix

Probability and Impact Matrixplea

Please finish part 1: No. 5 Timing No.9. Probability and impact matrix. The task requires completing the probability and impact matrix as part of the Risk Management Plan (RMP) for the described event planning scenario at Harrisburg University. The plan should follow the guidance from PMBOK 6e (Section 11.1.3.1), including the development of a risk breakdown structure (RBS), probability and impact scales, a probability-impact matrix with a scoring scheme, and sample risk statements illustrating threats and opportunities related to the project’s risks.

This section, specifically, pertains to the detailed construction of the probability and impact matrix, which involves defining scales for assessing the likelihood and potential consequences of risks affecting project schedule, cost, and quality. The scoring scheme should incorporate five levels for each dimension, labeled very low, low, medium, high, and very high, to facilitate a standardized approach to risk assessment. The matrix will serve as a critical tool for prioritizing risks based on their assessed probability and impact, guiding risk response planning and resource allocation throughout the project.

In addition to the matrix, the plan must include an explanation of how risk scores are assigned based on the combination of probability and impact levels, resulting in a risk priority number or score. It should also provide examples of risk statements, exemplifying both threats (negative risks) and opportunities (positive risks), which clearly specify the cause, risk event, and effect, as per best practices in risk documentation. For example, a threat-related risk statement could involve delays due to weather conditions, while an opportunity-related statement might involve a potential sponsorship that could enhance the event’s success.

Paper For Above instruction

The successful management of risks is essential to ensure that the Harrisburg University outdoor campus event proceeds smoothly within the defined constraints and stakeholder expectations. The development of a comprehensive risk management plan (RMP), with a particular focus on the probability and impact matrix, provides a structured approach to identifying, assessing, and prioritizing risks that may threaten or enhance the project's objectives. This paper elaborates on the construction of the probability and impact matrix, incorporating scales, scoring schemes, and sample risk statements aligned with the project scenario provided.

First, defining the scales for probability and impact is fundamental for consistent risk evaluation. The five-level scale for probability includes descriptions ranging from 'very low' (rare chance of occurrence) to 'very high' (almost certain to occur). Similarly, impact scales address the severity of potential consequences on project schedule, cost, or quality, from minimal to catastrophic effects. Consequently, these scales enable project team members to rate risks objectively based on evidence and judgment, reducing subjective bias in risk assessment.

The probability and impact scoring scheme assigns numerical values to each level to facilitate quantitative analysis. For example, the scheme assigns scores from 1 to 5, with 1 representing very low probability/impact, and 5 representing very high probability/impact. By combining these scores, a risk matrix can be constructed, typically displayed as a 5x5 grid, with probability levels on one axis and impact levels on the other. This matrix visually emphasizes risks that simultaneously have high likelihood and severe consequences, thus prioritizing them for mitigation or opportunity exploitation.

Constructing the probability-impact matrix involves creating a scoring scheme that ranks risks based on their combined probability and impact scores, resulting in a risk priority number (RPN). Risks with high RPNs (e.g., scores in the upper right corner of the matrix) are considered more critical and require immediate attention. Conversely, risks with low scores are monitored but may not need active management unless context changes. This structured approach streamlines decision-making, resource allocation, and risk response planning throughout the project lifecycle.

Sample risk statements exemplify how threats and opportunities are documented. Threat risk statements identify potential adverse events, such as delays caused by unexpected weather or security breaches risking alcohol management. An example might be: "Heavy rainfall during the event day may cause schedule delays and venue damage, impacting the event’s success." Opportunity risk statements highlight positive developments like sponsorships, for example: "Securing a major sponsor could increase the event’s funding and visibility, enhancing its overall success." These statements clarify the cause, the uncertain event, and its potential effect, aiding communication among stakeholders.

The development of these elements within the RMP ensures a systematic approach to managing uncertainties. Through defined scales, scoring schemes, and clear risk statements, the project team can effectively identify critical risks, plan responses, and monitor risk status throughout the project. The comprehensive nature of the probability and impact matrix thus supports Harrisburg University’s goals to deliver a successful outdoor event within schedule and budget constraints, while also leveraging opportunities for added value.

References

• Project Management Institute. (2017). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) (6th ed.). PMI.
• Kliem, R. L. (2007). Risk Management in Projects. CRC Press.
• Hillson, D. (2012). Managing Risk in Projects. Routledge.
• Chapman, C., & Ward, S. (2011). How to manage project opportunities and risks: Why uncertainty management can be a much richer concept than risk management. John Wiley & Sons.
• PMI. (2013). Practice Standard for Project Risk Management. Project Management Institute.
• Burke, R. (2013). Project Management: Planning and Control Techniques (5th ed.). Wiley.
• PMI. (2017). Risk Management Professional (PMR) Examination Specification. PMI.
• Kerzner, H. (2017). Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling. Wiley.
• Turner, J. R. (2010). Gower Handbook of Project Management. Gower Publishing.
• Martinsuo, M., & Artto, K. (2011). What is project strategy? International Journal of Project Management, 29(1), 4-16.