Question 1 Problem 5109 From Your Text Do This

Question 1 Problem 5109 From Your Text Do This Problem By Hand And

Testing for HIV. Enzyme immunoassay (EIA) tests are used to screen blood specimens for the presence of antibodies to HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. Antibodies indicate the presence of the virus. The test is quite accurate but is not always correct.

Here are approximate probabilities of positive and negative EIA outcomes when the blood tested does and does not actually contain antibodies to HIV:

Suppose that 1% of a large population carries antibodies to HIV in their blood.

Paper For Above instruction

To analyze the probabilities related to HIV testing using enzyme immunoassay (EIA), it is essential to understand the structure of the problem thoroughly. The problem involves conditional probabilities, Bayes' theorem, and interpretation of test accuracy in a population where the prevalence of HIV antibodies is low. This analysis entails visualizing the process through a tree diagram, calculating the likelihood of test results, and updating probabilities based on new information.

First, a tree diagram aids in visualizing the different pathways a randomly selected individual from the population might follow. The initial branch represents the individual's true status regarding HIV antibodies—either present or absent. Given that 1% (or 0.01) of the population has antibodies, the probabilities are straightforward: 0.01 for antibodies present and 0.99 for antibodies absent. The second branch models the test outcome, conditioned on the individual's true status. The probabilities of the test being positive or negative are given conditional on the true status: for individuals with antibodies, the probability of a positive test is 0.9985 (reflecting high sensitivity), and negative is 0.0015. For individuals without antibodies, the probabilities are 0.006 for a false positive and 0.994 for a true negative.

Using this framework, we can proceed to calculations. The probability that a randomly selected person tests positive (Part b) is obtained by summing over the mutually exclusive pathways leading to a positive test: either the person truly has antibodies and tests positive, or the person does not have antibodies but tests positive falsely. Mathematically:

P(test positive) = P(antibodies) P(test positive | antibodies) + P(no antibodies) P(test positive | no antibodies)

= (0.01)(0.9985) + (0.99)(0.006) = 0.009985 + 0.00594 = 0.015925, approximately 0.016 as given in the problem.

To find the probability that a person truly has antibodies given that they tested positive (Part c), Bayes' theorem is applied:

P(antibodies | test positive) = P(antibodies and test positive) / P(test positive)

= [(0.01)(0.9985)] / 0.016 = 0.009985 / 0.016 ≈ 0.624

This indicates that despite the high accuracy of the test, the low prevalence of actual HIV antibodies results in a post-test probability of only approximately 62.4% that a positive result truly indicates presence of antibodies.

Implications for Different Populations

Extending the analysis to different populations underscores the influence of prevalence on test interpretation. When prevalence is extremely low, even a highly accurate test yields a substantial probability of false positives, which can mislead clinical decisions and public health policies.

For prescreened blood donors with a prevalence of 0.1% (0.001), the posterior probability that a positive test indicates actual antibodies becomes:

P(antibodies | test positive) = (0.001)(0.9985) / [(0.001)(0.9985) + (0.999)(0.006)] ≈ 0.0009985 / (0.0009985 + 0.005994) ≈ 0.0009985 / 0.006993 ≈ 0.143, or 14.3%. This low probability illustrates the challenge of screening in low-prevalence populations and emphasizes confirmatory testing.

Conversely, in a high-risk group such as clients of a drug rehab clinic, with prevalence at 10% (0.10), the probability becomes:

P(antibodies | test positive) = (0.10)(0.9985) / [(0.10)(0.9985) + (0.90)(0.006)] ≈ 0.09985 / (0.09985 + 0.0054) ≈ 0.09985 / 0.10525 ≈ 0.948, or 94.8%. This stark contrast highlights that the interpretive value of a positive test significantly depends on the underlying prevalence in the tested population.

Lessons and Broader Considerations

These calculations demonstrate critical lessons in diagnostic testing: the importance of context, prevalence, and the probabilistic interpretation of test results. Even tests with high sensitivity and specificity can yield a high proportion of false positives in low-prevalence populations, emphasizing the value of confirmatory testing and comprehensive diagnostic algorithms. Public health strategies must consider these factors to avoid misdiagnosis, unnecessary anxiety, or missed detections. Furthermore, this analysis shows the importance of individualized risk assessment in interpreting test results, as the prior probability of disease dramatically influences the post-test probability.

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