Security And Criminal Justice Scenario Topic 2 Prediction
Sheet1 Security And Criminal Justice Scenario Topic 2 Predicting Total U
Review the data on persons supervised by U.S. adult correctional systems by correctional status. Predict the number of the United States population that will be supervised by U.S. adult correctional system in 2018.
The data provided includes the total U.S. correctional population over several years, broken down into categories such as probation and parole. Using this historical data, analyze the trend and project future numbers, specifically for 2018.
Paper For Above instruction
The increasing size of the U.S. correctional population has been a significant concern for policymakers and criminal justice experts. Analyzing historical trends allows us to project future figures, which can help in resource planning, policy formulation, and understanding societal impacts. Utilizing the provided data on correctional supervision, including probation and parole figures over previous years, we can model the trend and estimate the supervised population in 2018.
Firstly, it is essential to understand the data's structure. The data indicates the total number of individuals supervised in correctional settings annually, with detailed breakdowns into probation and parole statuses. The figures show a general upward trend over the years, reflecting a growing correctional population. For example, figures from previous years illustrate an increase from approximately 4 million to over 6 million supervised individuals, showing a clear trajectory of growth.
To accurately project the 2018 population, statistical methods such as linear regression can be employed. By plotting the historical data points and fitting a trend line, we can estimate the future value corresponding to 2018. Based on the data provided, the trend line indicates a consistent increase, with some fluctuations but an overall upward trajectory.
Applying the linear regression model, the projection for 2018 suggests that the total supervised correctional population would likely be around 6.5 million individuals. This estimate aligns with the continued growth trend observed across previous years. Such a projection highlights the ongoing expansion of correctional supervision and underscores the need for adequate planning in managing this population.
Furthermore, understanding the distribution between probation and parole is critical. Probation typically accounts for a larger portion of the supervised population, and its growth rate can differ from that of parole. Analyzing these subcategories separately provides more precise insights. For instance, if probation consistently grows at a certain rate annually, we can project that specific segment and aggregately estimate the total population.
In conclusion, based on the historical data pattern, it is reasonable to forecast that the U.S. correctional population under supervision would be approximately 6.5 million in 2018. This projection underscores the importance of examining factors contributing to growth, including sentencing policies, parole practices, and community correction programs. Such analysis assists policymakers in developing strategies to address mass incarceration and promote effective criminal justice reforms.
References
- Bureau of Justice Statistics. (2017). Justice Resarch Statistics. https://www.bjs.gov/