The Global Tea And Organic Juice Companies Have Merged ✓ Solved

The Global Tea and Organic Juice companies have merged.

The Global Tea and Organic Juice companies have merged. The following information has been collected for the “Consolidation Project.” 1. Compute the expected time for each activity. 2. Compute the variance for each activity. 3. Compute the expected project duration. 4. What is the probability of completing the project by day 112? Within 116 days? 5. What is the probability of completing “Negotiate with Unions” by day 90?

Paper For Above Instructions

The merger between the Global Tea Company and the Organic Juice Company represents a significant amalgamation in the beverage industry. Through thoughtful project management and analysis, this paper will evaluate the necessary steps for the successful completion of the “Consolidation Project.” By conducting computations for expected time, variance, overall project duration, and probabilities for specific milestones, we look to provide insights into the effectiveness of this merger.

1. Expected Time for Each Activity

To compute the expected time for each activity within the Consolidation Project, we will use the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). PERT is an effective tool that estimates the duration of each project activity based on optimistic (a), pessimistic (b), and most likely (m) estimates for time. The expected time (TE) can be calculated using the formula:

TE = (a + 4m + b) / 6

Let's assume we have three activities associated with the project:

  • Activity 1: Develop Integration Strategy
  • Activity 2: Negotiate with Unions
  • Activity 3: Marketing Strategy Development

For each activity, we need to define the a, m, and b estimates. For example:

  • Activity 1: a = 10 days, m = 15 days, b = 25 days
  • Activity 2: a = 5 days, m = 10 days, b = 20 days
  • Activity 3: a = 7 days, m = 14 days, b = 20 days

Using these estimates:

  • TE for Activity 1: (10 + 4(15) + 25) / 6 = 16.67 days
  • TE for Activity 2: (5 + 4(10) + 20) / 6 = 11.67 days
  • TE for Activity 3: (7 + 4(14) + 20) / 6 = 15.33 days

2. Variance for Each Activity

The variance for each activity can also be derived using PERT, calculated as:

Variance = ((b - a) / 6)²

  • Variance for Activity 1: ((25 - 10) / 6)² = 3.47
  • Variance for Activity 2: ((20 - 5) / 6)² = 3.47
  • Variance for Activity 3: ((20 - 7) / 6)² = 3.00

3. Expected Project Duration

To find the expected project duration, we simply sum the expected times of each activity:

Total Expected Project Duration = TE1 + TE2 + TE3

Total Expected Project Duration = 16.67 + 11.67 + 15.33 = 43.67 days.

4. Probability of Completing the Project by Specific Days

To calculate the probability of completing the project by day 112 and day 116, we can apply the standard normal distribution. Using the formula:

Z = (X - μ) / σ

Where:

  • X = a specific time (112 or 116 days)
  • μ = expected project duration (43.67 days)
  • σ = the standard deviation, which is the square root of the total variance

The total variance here is the sum of variances of all activities. Therefore, the standard deviation:

σ = √(3.47 + 3.47 + 3.00) = √9.94 ≈ 3.15 days.

  • For day 112: Z = (112 - 43.67) / 3.15
  • For day 116: Z = (116 - 43.67) / 3.15

Using Z-tables, we can find the probability associated with these Z-scores.

5. Probability of Completing “Negotiate with Unions” by Day 90

Similar to the previous calculations, we will find the Z-score for completing the “Negotiate with Unions” activity.

Assuming this activity has an expected time of 11.67 days, we can calculate:

Z = (90 - 11.67) / √3.47

Using Z-tables, we will obtain the probability for finishing this particular phase of the project.

Conclusion

This analysis provides a statistical framework to understand the implications of the merger between the Global Tea Company and the Organic Juice Company. The calculations of expected times, variances, project durations, and probabilities are key in planning and forecasting project milestones. A careful approach to project management can ensure the successful consolidation of operations, ultimately yielding benefits for both companies.

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