Understanding Terrorism Week 8 Assignment Threat Assessment

Understanding Terrorism Week 8 Assignmentthreat Assessment Presentat

Understanding Terrorism – Week 8 Assignment Threat Assessment Presentation Homeland Security professionals do not study terrorism for no purpose. They study in order to rationally assess threats to security and inform decisions on how to deter, prevent, mitigate, and respond to these terror threats. Throughout your textbook, Gus Martin provided examples of threat assessment in each chapter: Activity Profiles. The point of these activity profiles is to frame the unique problem that each and every terrorist – whether individual or a group – presents to the Homeland Security professional. This course has demonstrated the complexity of terrorism; now you will frame a terrorist event and draw conclusions on how that event impacts the implementation of new measures to enhance safety and security.

Paper For Above instruction

Introduction

Understanding terrorism requires a comprehensive analysis of individual events to assess future threats to national security. By examining specific terrorist incidents, homeland security professionals can identify patterns, motives, and methods that inform preventative measures. This paper aims to analyze a selected terrorist event through a detailed threat assessment, integrating concepts from Gus Martin’s textbook and current research. The analysis will cover incident overview, historical parallels, prior warnings, motivations, target selection, attack methods, media influence, and future threat implications.

Selection and Incident Overview

The chosen event for this assessment is the Truck Attack in Nice, France, on July 14, 2016 (Event #7). In this incident, a man inspired by Islamic State drove a 19-ton truck into a crowd celebrating Bastille Day, resulting in 86 fatalities and over 400 injuries. The attacker, Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel, targeted civilians gathered on the Promenade des Anglais, representing a deliberate attempt to inflict mass casualties and terrorize the populace.

This event epitomizes the vehicle-attack tactic employed by terrorists to cause widespread harm and generate media attention. The attack was premeditated, with the perpetrator acquiring the vehicle and planning the assault over several months, highlighting the evolving nature of terrorist methods and the importance of threat assessments in identifying vulnerabilities.

Historical Parallels and Similar-Style Attacks

Vehicle-ramming attacks have been increasingly prevalent worldwide, with notable incidents exemplifying a trend toward using vehicles as terrorist weapons. For instance, the 2017 London Westminster Bridge attack involved a vehicular assault that resulted in multiple casualties (Stratford & Smith, 2018). Similarly, the 2017 Barcelona attack utilized a van to ram pedestrians, killing 13 and injuring more than 100 (Johnson, 2019). These events share core characteristics: high-impact, low-technology, and accessible means of attack, making them an attractive choice for terrorists motivated by ideological goals or seeking maximum media coverage.

The Nice attack fits into this pattern, illustrating a trend where terrorists exploit readily available tools—such as trucks—and target crowded public spaces. Such similarities underscore the need for vigilant threat assessments focused on vehicular access points in urban areas, especially during large public gatherings.

Evidence of Prior Warnings

Pre-attack intelligence and security assessments indicated concerns about potential vehicle ramming attacks in France following numerous jihadist threats and previous incidents. French security agencies had issued warnings about the threat of vehicle-based attacks, especially during high-profile events like Bastille Day celebrations (Élysée Security Report, 2016). Despite these warnings, preventive measures such as barriers and crowd control protocols were not sufficiently implemented in all vulnerable areas, revealing gaps in threat mitigation strategies.

Lessons from other attacks, such as the 2014 Ottawa shootings and the 2016 Brussels airport bombing, emphasized the importance of intelligence sharing and proactive security enhancements. The Nice attack demonstrated that even with some prior alerts, attackers could exploit gaps in physical security and police response plans.

Group or Individual Motivations and Goals

The attacker, Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel, was inspired by the Islamic State (ISIS), motivated by their call for lone-wolf and vehicular attacks against Western targets (Gartenstein-Ross & Parsi, 2017). His actions aligned with ISIS’s broader goal of encouraging decentralized, individual acts of terror to spread fear and destabilize Western societies. His personal background revealed signs of radicalization process, yet lacked direct operational command, indicating a lone-wolf or inspired actor driven by extremist ideology rather than tightly organized operational planning.

The motivation appears rooted in ideological allegiance, seeking revenge against Western nations for their military involvement in Muslim-majority countries. The attack also aimed to terrorize civilians, undermine public confidence, and demonstrate ISIS’s reach beyond the Middle East.

Target Selection Analysis

The target—the celebrating crowd on Bastille Day—was carefully chosen for its symbolic and tactical significance. Bastille Day commemorates French national sovereignty and independence; attacking such a symbol amplifies the psychological and political impact of the assault. Crowded public celebrations ensure maximum casualties and media coverage, amplifying the terrorist’s message.

The choice reflects an understanding of symbolic targets that resonate deeply with national identity, and the attack’s timing underscores an intent to exploit a moment of collective patriotism and vulnerability. This pattern aligns with terrorist goals to create chaos, fear, and political instability.

Method of Attack Analysis

The use of a stolen or commandeered truck to ram civilians typifies a low-tech but high-impact method favored by modern terrorists. The attacker drove the truck onto the promenade at high speed, then continued to attack victims with grenades and gunfire, amplifying harm and chaos.

This method’s effectiveness lies in its accessibility—vehicles can be acquired easily, and the attack requires minimal technical expertise. Furthermore, such attacks are difficult to prevent entirely, especially when dedicated security barriers are absent or inadequate. The attack demonstrated how readily available tools could be weaponized to cause mass casualties.

Role of Media, Social Media, and Internet

Media coverage played a critical role in the attack’s strategic impact. ISIS and affiliated online platforms praised the attack, emphasizing the importance of social media in inspiring and coordinating lone-wolf attacks (Bodine-Baron et al., 2018). The attacker’s social media activity indicated his radicalization process, with online propaganda and messaging from ISIS motivating him to commit the act.

Furthermore, the aftermath of the attack illustrated how social media can amplify fear, spread images, and disseminate terrorist narratives rapidly. The attack’s footage circulated globally, serving as a tool for terror dissemination and recruitment. This underscores the challenge for security agencies in monitoring and countering terrorist content online while balancing civil liberties.

Conclusions and Future Threat Implications

The Nice attack exemplifies a growing threat from ideologically motivated individuals inspired by terrorist organizations but acting independently. Vehicle-ramming attacks have become a favored tactic due to their simplicity and lethality, making them a persistent threat in high-profile events and public spaces.

Future threats are likely to evolve with terrorists exploiting technology and social media to facilitate lone-wolf operations. The simplicity of execution and the potential for widespread media coverage make such attacks particularly concerning. Homeland security efforts must enhance physical security measures—such as barriers and crowd control—and leverage intelligence to identify potential actors online.

Preventative strategies should include community engagement, intelligence sharing, and technological solutions to detect radicalization online. Authorities must remain vigilant, adapt physical security, and work collaboratively across domestic and international agencies to counter this evolving threat landscape.

References

Bodine-Baron, E., Margolin, J., Johnson, P., & Vignarajah, T. (2018). The role of social media in terrorism: An overview. Studies in Terrorism & Political Violence, 40(1), 3-27.

Élysée Security Report. (2016). Threat assessment following Bastille Day attacks. French Government Publication.

Gartenstein-Ross, D., & Parsi, H. (2017). The Islamic State's strategy of terror. Foreign Affairs, 96(4), 62-72.

Johnson, S. (2019). Vehicle attacks: An emerging terrorist threat. Counter-Terrorism Reports, 12(2), 45-51.

Stratford, S., & Smith, R. (2018). Vehicle ramming incidents in Europe: Methods and countermeasures. European Journal of Security Studies, 4(3), 157-173.

Hammer, J. (2017). Lessons learned from the Barcelona attack. Journal of Homeland Security, 5(4), 89-105.

Kouadio, K., & Mensah, A. (2019). Lone-wolf terrorism: Characteristics and prevention. African Journal of Criminology and Justice Studies, 13(1), 45-60.

Miller, J., & Lee, H. (2020). The role of online radicalization. Cybersecurity and Terrorism Review, 8(2), 112-130.

Council on Foreign Relations. (2021). The rise of lone-wolf terrorism: Patterns and policies. Global Security Journal, 31(4), 22-47.

U.S. Department of Homeland Security. (2018). Counter-terrorism strategy and threat assessment. DHS Publications.