University Of Bahrain College Of Information Technology Depa

University Of Bahraincollege Of Information Technologydepartment Of In

University of Bahrain College of Information Technology Department of Information Systems ITIS361: Decision Support System Assignment one Due date Saturday 12th Nov 2022 PART ONE AZOON Mart is one of the competitive super markets in the region. The company has a high market share and strong competitive position. They are adopting IT for taking decision and predicting the future. The company focuses mostly on the grocery and electronics productions. The following are some of the historical data of the company: Demand of years before 2011 Years Electronics Grocery Demand of years after 2010 (Trend) T1= 20 Years Electronics Grocery Cost of advertisement Type of media Adv cost/unit TV Road Show Web Banner Social media print adv WOM Relationship between demand and advertisement media type of media GEOCERY ELECTRONICS TV Road Show Web Banner Social media print adv WOM. Use the above information and answer the following questions: 1- What is the demand of Electronic and Grocery for the year 2023. 2- How much it will cost the company for the advertisement of the demand on year 2023 (Elections and Grocery). 1.2: The previous years historical data revealed that there is a linear relationship between quarters, advertisement media and demand (regardless of the electronic or grocery) for the years from 1998 to 2019 as shown in the below table: Year Quarter Advertisement Media Demand 1998 Q1 TV Q2 TV Q3 ROAD SHOW Q4 TV Q5 SM Q6 WOM Q7 WOM Q8 SM Q9 TV Q10 TV Q11 ROAD SHOW Q12 PRINT Q14 WEB BANNER Q15 WEB BANNER Q16 PRINT Q17 TV Q19 ROAD SHOW Q20 SM Q21 WOM Q22 SM Q24 PRINT Q25 TV 7200. If the company will use the following advertisement media in the year 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, how much demand they will get? And how much it will cost them to get such demand? Q1 Q2 Q3 Q TV PRINT PRINT ROAD SHOW 2021 TV SM WOM SM 2022 PRINT ROAD SHOW SM TV 2023 SM WEB BANNER WOM WOM PART TWO The Funny-Stay Home (FSH) is an Instagram business. It has been launched just on February 2020 as a result of the COVID 19 crisis. Mona, the owner of the business needs your help and consultation to take a decision whether to continue with her business or withdraw. The following are some information collected based on the previous two months’ activities: Game PRICE PRODUCTION COST Destination DEMAND/MONTH SNAKES AND LADDERS ISA TOWN 20 LUDO MANAMA 12 MONOPOLY ISA TOWN 5 CHEES HAMAD ROWN 6 UNO MANAMA 10 SCRABBLE HAMAD ROWN 17 DELIVERY AREA COST(BD) MANAMA 2 ISA TOWN 3 HAMAD ROWN 5 Fixed cost 100 The monthly fixed cost includes the electricity, internet, and the store rents estimated to be BD 100. Use the above information to: 1- Calculate the monthly profit of the company? 2- Based on their revenue, on which product should the company focus? 3- Based on their revenue, which area demands the company should focus on? 4- How much demand for all products they should get in order to reach a profit of BD1300 with the following restriction on production: SNAKES AND LADDERS 25, LUDO 15, MONOPOLY 10, CHEES 10, UNO 20, SCRABBLE. The company decided to sell the product to three destinations; how much they should sell to get a revenue of BD2000. Note that the company cannot sell more than 50 units in each destination. 6- How much can they sell from each product in each destination to achieve a profit of BD2000? The revenue generated from Hamad Town should not exceed BD1000.

Paper For Above instruction

The comprehensive decision-making process within a supermarket like AZOON Mart and a small entrepreneurial venture such as Funny-Stay Home (FSH) requires meticulous analysis of sales data, marketing strategies, and financial metrics. The goal of this report is to explore predictive demand modeling, advertising cost analysis, and profit calculations based on historical data and strategic assumptions provided in the assignment. These insights assist managerial decisions on future demand projection, advertising budgeting, and resource allocation, essential for long-term sustainability and competitiveness.

Part One: Demand Forecasting and Advertising Cost Analysis for AZOON Mart

Understanding the future demand for electronics and grocery items in 2023 involves analyzing historical data and applying predictive modeling techniques. The provided data points to a trend that can be extrapolated using linear regression analysis, which estimates future demand based on past demand and advertising influences.

The demand for 2011 onward shows an upward trend, suggesting that demand can be projected by identifying the linear pattern from previous years. Assuming a linear growth model, the demand increase per year can be calculated from past data. For example, if demand in 2010 was 20 units and increased by an average of 3 units annually, the demand in 2023 would be estimated by adding the age gap (2023 - 2010 = 13 years) multiplied by the annual growth rate to the 2010 demand.

Similarly, the advertising media influence on demand was quantified through relationships expressed via different media types (TV, Road Show, Web Banner, Social Media, Print, WOM), typically modeled through regression coefficients or correlation analysis. Therefore, the demand forecast for 2023 can combine the trend analysis with the media impact factors to improve accuracy.

The advertisement cost for 2023 can then be computed by multiplying the demanded quantities by the respective advertising costs per unit. For example, if the demand for electronics is forecasted at 25 units, and the multimedia advertising includes TV at BD3.50 per unit, Web Banner at BD1.45 per unit, etc., then the total advertising expenditure can be calculated accordingly by summing over all media types.

Part Two: Predicting Demand and Cost Based on Quarterly Advertising Media

The historical data from 1998 to 2019 reveal quarterly patterns and media effectiveness, which can be incorporated into predictive models for upcoming years. By assigning weights based on past performance and media influence, the projected demand for 2020-2023 can be estimated for each quarter and media combination.

Using the previous quarter data and assuming similar patterns continue, demand for each quarter can be forecasted, and associated advertising costs calculated based on the projected media mix in those periods. These forecasts are valuable for planning marketing budgets and operational inventory management.

Part Three: Profit Analysis for FSH Business

The second part of the assignment involves calculating the monthly profit for FSH, focusing on revenue, fixed costs, variable costs, and demand. Total monthly revenue can be derived by multiplying demand per product by its price, summing across all products and destinations.

The total variable costs include production costs per product, and fixed costs comprise the BD100 monthly expenses like rent and utilities. Profit is then computed as total revenue minus total variable and fixed costs.

Focusing on product profitability highlights which games generate more revenue relative to their costs, guiding strategic emphasis. Additionally, demand levels needed to achieve a target profit of BD1300 can be calculated by rearranging the profit equation and considering production constraints.

Sales distribution across destinations must be optimized to meet revenue goals, respecting the maximum units per destination and revenue caps for specific areas like Hamad Town. Solving these constraints involves linear programming or iterative calculations to determine the most profitable sales mix.

Conclusion

Strategic decision-making in retail environments benefits greatly from predictive analytics, cost management, and demand forecasting. By applying statistical models and financial calculations to real data, AZOON Mart can refine its marketing and inventory strategies, while FSH can optimize sales and profit levels. These analytical approaches underpin effective management practices, ensuring the sustainability and growth of both enterprises in competitive markets.

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