William Fine Method Of Risk Assessment Dropbox Assign 197963

William Fine Method Of Risk Assessment Dropbox Assignmentproblem 1th

William Fine Method Of Risk Assessment Dropbox Assignmentproblem 1th

William Fine Method of Risk Assessment Dropbox Assignment Problem #1: There is a pipeline for transport of a solvent throughout an industrial plant. The pipeline does leak a small amount. The company is contemplating replacing the pipeline. The company has the following data about the change: if the pipe bursts, there will be multiple fatalities and more than $500,000 in damage. The leaks occur about twice per week.

There is a small chance (coincidence) that the leaks could actually lead to a pipe bursting. The cost to correct the hazard is $19,500. The correction will reduce the hazard by 80%. (There is never zero risk with pipeline). Use the William Fine method to determine: (a) Risk score and a recommended time frame to correct the hazard (b) If the cost to correct the hazard is justified. Show your calculations here: Problem #2: There is an old tire building machine which leaks hydraulic fluid. It is so old that parts are no longer available, and maintenance has done all it can to repair the machine. Even with the proper PPE, about once per week, someone slips in the hydraulic fluid and falls. On the average, only minor injuries occur when workers slip and fall. There is a great likelihood that when a person encounters the fluid, they will fall down and hurt themselves. It is estimated to cost over $50,000 to replace the machine; however, the hazard will be reduced by about 90%, since there is the remote possibility that a new machine might leak. Use the William Fine Method to determine: (c) Risk score and a recommended time frame to correct the hazard (d) If the cost to correct the hazard is justified. Show your calculations here: Write your boss a memo about what to do about each of these hazards.

Paper For Above instruction

Risk assessment is an essential component of workplace safety management, enabling organizations to identify hazards, evaluate associated risks, and implement appropriate control measures. The William Fine method offers a structured approach to evaluating risks related to specific hazards by quantifying both the likelihood and severity of potential incidents. This paper applies the William Fine method to two industrial hazards: a leaking pipeline carrying a solvent and an old hydraulic machine leaking fluid, to determine risk scores, recommend intervention timelines, and assess the justification for corrective actions.

Case 1: Leak-Prone Pipeline in an Industrial Plant

The pipeline carries a solvent throughout an industrial plant and leaks intermittently. Although leaks occur about twice weekly, there exists a small probability of leak escalation to a severe pipeline burst caused by the leak, which could result in multiple fatalities and over $500,000 in damages. The cost to mitigate this hazard (by replacing or repairing the pipeline) is $19,500, which reduces the hazard risk by 80%.

Using the William Fine method involves calculating a risk score, which is typically the product of the likelihood and severity of the incident (risk = probability × impact). The likelihood is derived from the frequency of leaks and the probability that a leak leads to a burst. Based on industry data, the chance of a leak escalating to a burst is small but non-negligible; for calculation purposes, assume a 5% probability per leak. Given that leaks happen twice a week, this results in approximately 104 leaks annually, with an estimated 5% chance of a burst per leak, equating to about 5.2 potential burst incidents per year.

Severity estimates for a pipeline burst are substantial, with potential fatalities and over half a million dollars in damages. To quantify severity, assign a high value, for example, 10 (on a scale of 1 to 10), due to the catastrophic consequences.

Calculating the annual risk score:

• Expected number of bursts per year = 104 leaks × 5% probability = 5.2
• Risk score = number of events × severity = 5.2 × 10 = 52

The risk score suggests a significant danger that warrants intervention. The cost to correct, $19,500, reduces the hazard by 80%. Therefore, the residual risk after mitigation becomes:

• Residual risk score = initial risk score × (1 - reduction percentage) = 52 × (1 - 0.8) = 10.4

This risk score indicates a moderate risk level, and considering the high potential impact, it is advisable to implement the correction within a time frame that reduces the risk's exposure. According to safety management best practices, a recommended timeframe of six months allows for planning, procurement, and installation.

Justification of the correction cost involves comparing the cost of mitigation relative to the potential damages avoided. The expected annual damage without correction is:

• Expected losses = number of bursts × damage cost = 5.2 × $500,000 = $2,600,000

Since the correction costs $19,500 and reduces the risk significantly, the cost-benefit analysis demonstrates a favorable scenario; the cost of correction is negligible compared to potential losses. Therefore, the correction is justified.

Case 2: Leaking Hydraulic Machine in a Tire Manufacturing Facility

The second hazard involves an aging hydraulic machine leaking fluid thus causing workers to slip and fall. The machine leaks once a week, with minor injuries resulting each time. The cost to replace the machine is over $50,000. The current hazard results in minor injuries, but the fall risk and injury severity could escalate, especially if a worker falls on a hard surface or hits nearby objects. The hazard could be reduced by approximately 90% through replacement.

Applying William Fine methodology, estimate the risk score based on leak frequency and injury severity. The weekly leakage results in 52 incidents annually. Assuming moderate injury severity, assign a value of 3 on a scale of 1 to 10, reflecting minor injuries but with a potential for escalation.

The expected annual incident risk score is:

• Annual incidents = 52
• Risk score = incidents × severity = 52 × 3 = 156

After replacement, hazard reduction is approximately 90%, leading to a residual risk score:

• Residual risk score = 156 × (1 - 0.9) = 15.6

The cost of replacing the machine ($50,000) must be justified by the reduction in injury risk. The annual cost of minor injuries is relatively low, but the potential for more severe injuries exists, which could entail costs exceeding the replacement expense if escalation occurs.

Considering the high replacement cost but significant risk reduction, the decision should weigh the annualized risk reduction value against the replacement cost. The risk score reduction suggests a meaningful decrease in incidents and injuries, thus justification for replacing the machine within a one-year to two-year timeframe. Taking a precautionary approach, the replacement should be prioritized within six months to prevent escalation of injuries or more severe accidents.

Conclusions and Recommendations

The application of the William Fine method indicates that both hazards—pipeline leaks and hydraulic machine leaks—pose significant risks that justify corrective actions. The pipeline hazard, with its high potential damages, warrants immediate attention, and the estimated cost of mitigation is justified by the potential catastrophic consequences. The hydraulic machine leakage, while causing minor injuries presently, still benefits from replacement due to safety improvements and long-term risk reduction.

It is recommended that the company proceed with the pipeline repair within six months to definitively reduce risk and prevent catastrophic failure. Similarly, the hydraulic machine should be replaced within six months to prevent escalation of injuries and improve workplace safety. These actions not only comply with safety standards but also align with proactive risk management practices, ultimately saving costs and safeguarding worker welfare.

References

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