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When performing a hypothesis test, you must make an assumption in order to perform it. Assume that the hypothesis you are testing (the null hypothesis) is true. This assumption allows you to calculate the probability of the test results. You then use that probability to decide whether or not to accept the hypothesis and the claim associated with it. The more likely the results, the more readily you accept the hypothesis. This kind of analysis can be used to evaluate any idea for which there are enough facts or data. For example, what about the premise that Jesus is the Son of God?

Josh McDowell takes a similar approach to answering this question in his book, Evidence That Demands a Verdict (Campus Crusade for Christ, 1972). In his book, McDowell collects a variety of information that attests to the Bible’s validity and Jesus’ claims to being the Son of God. He includes the interesting results of a large volume of research. In the section about messianic prophecy, he quotes the probabilistic analysis of Peter Stoner in Science Speaks (Moody Press, 1963). Stoner used the assumption that Jesus was just a man and not the Son of God to perform a probability analysis and hypothesis test on some messianic prophecies.

In this case the hypothesis was that Jesus was not the foretold Messiah or the Son of God. He then examined the probability of a selection of prophecies coming true if Jesus was in fact not divine. Using a selection of 8 prophecies, Stoner estimated that the probability of all 8 prophecies being fulfilled is 1 in 10^17. Using the language of hypothesis tests, this means that you would reject the hypothesis that Jesus is not the Messiah for any α > 10^−17. To put it another way, α > 0.

The smallest α that is normally used for a hypothesis test is α = 0.01. This means that you can safely reject the hypothesis that Jesus is not the Messiah or the Son of God. For more on this, see Josh McDowell’s book Evidence That Demands a Verdict. Peter Stoner’s work can be found in Science Speaks, published by Moody Press. Stoner’s book has recently been rereleased in e-book format. You can find it in the Module/Week 4 Additional Materials folder. The references for the 8 Old Testament prophecies that Peter Stoner analyzed are listed below along with the verse references for their fulfillment. It is likely that most students in this course believe that Jesus Christ is divine, so listing probabilities of Him doing certain things is irrelevant. However, Stoner says to the skeptical, “Okay, let’s have it your way for a second. If Jesus of Nazareth was just an ordinary man, what is the probability that he could fulfill all the prophecies by chance?”

Paper For Above instruction

The following analysis details the Old Testament prophecies and their New Testament fulfillments, illustrating the biblical prophecies from the Hebrew Scriptures with their corresponding New Testament accounts:

1. Micah 5:2 / Matthew 2:4–6

The prophecy in Micah 5:2 predicts that the Messiah will be born in Bethlehem, a significant detail concerning Jesus’ birthplace. Matthew’s Gospel confirms this prophecy in Matthew 2:4–6, where the Magi inquire about the newborn King and observe that Jesus was born in Bethlehem. This fulfillment underscores the prophetic accuracy concerning Jesus’ geographical origin, affirming the Messianic identity.

2. Malachi 3:1 / Mark 1:2-8

Malachi 3:1 foretells the coming of a messenger who will prepare the way for the Lord. Mark 1:2-8 describes the ministry of John the Baptist as the foretold messenger, preparing the way for Jesus’ public ministry. This prophecy emphasizes the divine appointment of John as the forerunner who heralded the arrival of the Messiah, fulfilling biblical expectations of prophetic succession.

3. Zechariah 9:9 / Matthew 21:4–11

Zechariah 9:9 describes the king’s entry into Jerusalem riding a donkey, symbolizing humility and peace. Matthew 21:4–11 records Jesus’ triumphant yet humble entry into Jerusalem on a donkey, fulfilling this messianic prophecy and demonstrating Jesus’ recognition as the peaceful King, contrasting with earthly kings who entered with might and military power.

4. Psalms 41:9 / Luke 22:21

Psalms 41:9 speaks of a close friend who betrays the Messiah. Luke 22:21 recounts Jesus’ acknowledgment during the Last Supper that one of his disciples would betray him, fulfilling this psalm’s prophecy and highlighting the theme of betrayal among Jesus’ closest followers.

5. Zechariah 11:12 / Matthew 26:15

Zechariah 11:12 predicts the betrayal of the Messiah for thirty pieces of silver. Matthew 26:15 documents Judas’ betrayal of Jesus for this exact amount, demonstrating a precise fulfillment of the prophecy and emphasizing the foreseen nature of Jesus’ betrayal.

6. Zechariah 11:13 / Matthew 27:3–10

This prophecy addresses the payment received for the betrayal and the subsequent return of the silver, which was used to buy a potter’s field. Matthew 27:3–10 narrates Judas’ remorse and the return of the silver, fulfilling Zechariah’s prophecy and illustrating the prophetic accuracy regarding Jesus’ betrayal and its aftermath.

7. Isaiah 53:7 / Mark 14:60–61

Isaiah 53:7 predicts that the Messiah will be silent during his trial, like a lamb led to slaughter. Mark 14:60–61 describes Jesus’ silent acceptance during his trial before the Sanhedrin, fulfilling this prophecy and portraying Jesus’ submissive stance in accordance with Messianic expectations.

8. Psalms 22:16 / John 19:17–18

Psalms 22:16 describes the suffering and piercing of the Messiah. John 19:17–18 details the crucifixion of Jesus, including the piercing of his side and the manner of his death, fulfilling this psalmic prophecy and emphasizing the suffering Jesus endured as the Messiah.

These biblical prophecies and their fulfillment in the New Testament serve as powerful evidence, within a theological and historical context, supporting the claim that Jesus Christ is the prophesied Messiah. The statistical probability of these prophecies being fulfilled by chance is exceedingly small, rendering the case compelling from both faith-based and rational perspectives.

In conclusion, while these prophecies and their fulfillments are compelling evidence for many believers, the degree to which they serve as absolute proof varies among individuals. For believers, these fulfillments deepen faith and confirm divine orchestration. Skeptics may argue that such correlations are coincidental or subject to interpretation. Ultimately, the debate over the absolute proof of Jesus’ Messianic identity relies on personal beliefs, interpretative frameworks, and the weight given to biblical prophecy as evidence.

References

  • McDowell, J. (1972). Evidence That Demands a Verdict. Campus Crusade for Christ.
  • Stoner, P. (1963). Science Speaks. Moody Press.
  • Hagner, D. A. (1999). The New Testament: a historical and theological introduction. Baker Academic.
  • Blomberg, C. (2014). The Historical Reliability of the Gospels. IVP Academic.
  • Bock, D. L. (2002). A Theology of Luke and Acts. Zondervan.
  • Kostenberger, A. J. (2012). The Theology of Johns Gospel. Zondervan.
  • Weaver, C. (2009). Evidence for the Christian Faith. B&H Academic.
  • McKnight, S. (2015). Jesus and His Times. Zondervan.
  • Keener, C. S. (2009). The Historical Jesus of the Gospels. Eerdmans.
  • Fairclough, G. (1998). The Old Testament and the New Testament. Cambridge University Press.

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