Cambridge, Mass, July 9, 2020: COVID-19 Pandemic Update ✓ Solved

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While the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced air pollution in the U.S., the longer-term impact on the environment is unclear. In a recent study, MIT Sloan School of Management Prof. Christopher Knittel and Prof. Jing Li analyzed the short- and long-term effects, finding that the actual impact will depend on the policy response to the pandemic. Their study suggests that pushing back investments in renewable electricity generation by one year could outweigh the emission reductions and deaths avoided from March through June 2020.

"The pandemic raises two important questions related to the environment. First, what is the short-run impact on fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions? Second -- and more important but harder to answer -- what are the longer-term implications from the pandemic on those same variables? The health impacts from the pandemic could stretch out for decades if not centuries depending on the policy response," says Knittel. Li notes, "Climate change is one of the leading health issues of our time and it's critical to understand the impact of delaying decarbonization efforts because of the pandemic.

If the pandemic leads to a persistent global recession, there is a real threat to the adoption of clean technology, which could outweigh any 'silver lining' in environmental benefits." In their study, the researchers analyzed the short-term impact of the pandemic on CO2 emissions in the U.S. from late March to June 7, 2020. They found a 50% reduction in the use of jet fuel and a 30% reduction in the use of gasoline. The use of natural gas in residential and commercial buildings declined by almost 20% and overall electricity demand declined by less than 10%. "Overall, these reductions reflect a 15% total reduction in daily CO2 emissions, which is the largest annual percentage decline for the U.S. in recorded history," says Knittel.

"We estimate that the shutdowns saved about 200 lives per month, primarily driven by the lower emissions from transportation." However, the professors point out that the shutdown also halted most investment in the transition to low-carbon energy. Their paper notes that global electric vehicle sales are projected to decline by 43% in 2020 due to fewer auto sales overall combined with low gasoline prices. New residential rooftop solar and storage installations also declined along with energy efficiency audits. And clean energy jobs decreased by almost 600,000 by the end of April. "The short-term impact of the pandemic is clear, but the long-term impact is highly uncertain," says Li.

"It will depend on how long it takes to bring the pandemic under control and how long any economic recession lasts." The best-case scenario, according to the researchers, is a swift and low-cost strategy to control the virus, allowing the economy to reopen by the end of 2020. In this scenario, investment trends prior to the pandemic will continue. "Unfortunately, we view a second scenario as more likely," notes Knittel. "In this scenario, the consequences of the pandemic will be greater, with many more deaths and deeper disruptions to supply chains, and a persistent global recession. The need to backpedal on the reopening of the economy due to flare-ups could destroy rather than defer the demand for goods and services." In this scenario, the long-run impact on CO2 and local air pollutant emissions could outweigh the short-run reductions.

The delays in investments in renewables and vehicle fuel economy could lead to an additional 2,500 MMT of CO2, which could cause 40 deaths per month on average or 7,500 deaths during that time. "Our findings suggest that even just pushing back all renewable electricity generation investments by one year would outweigh the emissions reductions and avoided deaths from March to June of 2020. However, the energy policy response to COVID-19 is the wild card that can change everything," they wrote in an article for Joule. Li explains that budgets will be strained to pay for the costs of the virus, making it challenging to invest in clean energy. And if a recession persists, there may be pressure to lessen climate change mitigation goals.

However, stimulus packages could focus on clean energy, increasing clean air, clean jobs, and national security. "Just stabilizing the economy can go a long way to putting clean energy trends back on track. We need to solve the pandemic and continue to address climate change. Otherwise, it will lead to even more tragedy," adds Knittel. Li and Knittel are coauthors of "The short-run and long-run effects of COVID-19 on energy and the environment" with Kenneth Gillingham and Marten Ovaere of Yale University and Mar Reguant of Northwestern University. Their paper was published in a June issue of Joule.

About the MIT Sloan School of Management The MIT Sloan School of Management is where smart, independent leaders come together to solve problems, create new organizations, and improve the world. Learn more at mitsloan.mit.edu. Healthline.com, the nation’s No. 1 health-information website, today announced the launch of the Healthline Mental Health Index, a project in which the company is regularly surveying its audience about the emotional health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and incorporating the results with surveys of the general U.S. population via YouGov.

Healthline also announced the Healthline Mental Health Hub, a one-stop source for trusted information about coping with issues surrounding COVID-19. “Millions of people turn to Healthline every day for information about the coronavirus and how to deal with the resulting issues of anxiety and depression," said Dr. E Hahn Lee, a former family physician who leads Healthline’s Medical Affairs team. “It’s critical to track the emotional well-being of Americans during this crisis. The nation needs to address all the invisible concerns caused by the pandemic.” Healthline launched its survey among its readers on March 27.

The survey included the PHQ-4 scale, which is a validated clinical scale used to identify signs of anxiety and depression in the general population. The same questions were included in YouGov’s COVID-19 tracker conducted among the general U.S. population starting April 2. The findings include: Three out of five Americans remain afraid of contracting the virus based on the sixth wave of YouGov’s tracker. This figure has remained stable over the past month. Fear and anxiety among men is on the rise: from the survey wave ending April 20, 55% of men reported fear of contracting the virus compared with 50% two weeks earlier; anxiety among men rose from 15% to 22% in the same time period as measured by the PHQ-4 scale.

In comparison, 64% of women reported fear of contracting the virus, down from 70% two weeks ago. Anxiety among women also declined from 34% to 27% in the same time period. 25% of Americans are looking for information about how to deal with anxiety and stress and 21% want help for coping with isolation. Close to two out of five Healthline readers may be experiencing moderate to severe depression. 22% of Healthline readers are concerned they have COVID-19 symptoms, vs. 4% of the general population. Hispanics express more fear and anxiety than other ethnic groups.

According to the data collected by YouGov, the percentage who are fearful of contracting the virus has risen from 57% two weeks ago to 64% in the survey wave ending April 20. Looking at the gap between people’s health questions and the topics they find most difficult to find answers to shows three concerns: Of the 38% of Americans who say they want to understand how seriously they could get sick if they contracted the virus: 60% find this information difficult to find. Of the 19% who report looking for information on how to care for aging parents or children, 59% find this information difficult to find. Of the 14% who say they don’t know who to trust for their health questions at this time, 58% find it a challenge.

“Worldwide, people are concerned and are uncertain where to turn for trusted information during this unprecedented time,” said Healthline Media CEO David Kopp. “At Healthline, nothing is more important to us than meeting this need. Healthline's mission is to be your trusted ally as we make the world stronger and healthier.” To meet the need, Healthline Media already has published more than 300 evidence-based and medically-vetted articles about COVID-19 on its flagship brand Healthline.com and sister sites MedicalNewsToday.com and Greatist.com. The company will continue publishing at this pace for the duration of the pandemic, in addition to its regular 1,000 monthly articles and videos about health, nutrition, and lifestyle. All of Healthline Media’s articles and videos are free to anyone who logs on to the company’s sites. Healthline has created a repository of its COVID-19 content pertaining to mental health. The Healthline Mental Health Hub went live on Friday, May 1 to coincide with the beginning of Mental Health Awareness Month in the U.S. The "Impact of COVID-19 on the US Economy" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.

Impact of COVID-19 on the US Economy, Deviation & Trends Analysis Report: Segmentation (Automobile, Energy, Food & Beverage, Electrical and Electronics, Aviation, Healthcare, Retail & E-commerce, Travel & Tourism, Others) The US is a developed economy with nearly 24% of the global GDP in 2018. The country is one of the major markets and manufacturers of pharmaceuticals, automobiles, aviation, consumer electronics, and tourism. The US is the major economy with remarkable industrial output. The manufacturing sector is the major contributor to the growth of the US economy. As per the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), the manufacturing sector accounted for 11.3% of real GDP in the 2019 first quarter. In the first quarter of 2019, the manufacturers in the US produced nearly $2.4 trillion worth of goods for the economy. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019 (US Bureau of Economic Analysis).

The US has a major role in global trade activities, as it is the global leader in commercial services coupled with the presence of major IT companies, including IBM Corp., Microsoft Corp., and Oracle Corp., in the region. In addition, there are several major global players in different segments operating in the country, such as Ford Motor Co. (Automobile), the Boeing Co. (Aviation), and Walmart Inc. (Retail). However, due to the coronavirus epidemic, the US economy is facing concerns regarding industrial production. As per the data published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on March 4, 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 could lead to a decrease of $50 billion in exports across global value chains. In February 2020, China's manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) decreased by nearly 22 points to 37.5, which is the lowest since 2004. In the US, the spread of COVID-19 has been financially impacting the manufacturers of the country.

For instance, as per the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) survey conducted from February 28 to March 9, 2020, around 80.0% of respondents accept that COVID-19 will create a negative financial impact on their businesses and around 35.0% are already facing disruption in a supply chain process. The financial losses to the US manufacturers will, in turn, affect the production capacity and foreign trade operations. The study on the impact of COVID-19 on the industry is classified into automobile, energy, food & beverage, electrical and electronics, aviation, healthcare, retail & e-commerce, travel & tourism, and others. The automobile industry is being significantly affected by the coronavirus epidemic, as major US automobile companies have shut down their manufacturing operations across certain countries, in support of workers' safety. For instance, General Motors, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler have declared to shut down their plants in North America. As a result, it is affecting the automobile production in the US.

Key companies operating in the US whose business operations are significantly affected due to COVID-19 include Amazon.Com Inc., Ford Motor Co., Hyatt Hotels Corp., and the Boeing Co. The US retailers have shut down their stores to protect their staff and customers from the coronavirus outbreak. For instance, recently Nike Inc. and Under Armour Inc., sportswear retailers declared to close all stores in the US to limit the spread of the coronavirus. This will hinder their sales operations and thereby negatively impede the growth of the US retail sector.

Paper For Above Instructions

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a multifaceted impact on the global economy and environment. Researchers like Prof. Christopher Knittel and Prof. Jing Li from the MIT Sloan School of Management have provided critical insights into the intersection of health, energy consumption, and environmental ramifications regarding fossil fuel usage. Their findings underscore urgent environmental questions that emerged due to the pandemic and highlight the need for effective policy responses.

First, it is essential to quantify the short-term impacts of the pandemic on fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. During the initial months of the pandemic, there was a significant reduction in transportation activities due to lockdowns. According to the research, the consumption of jet fuel decreased by 50%, and gasoline usage dropped by 30%. Additionally, electricity demand saw a decline of less than 10%. Such reductions resulted in a 15% total reduction in daily CO2 emissions—recording the largest annual decline for the U.S. in history (Knittel & Li, 2020). While immediate benefits included a cleaner atmosphere and reduced air pollution, these gains must be considered against the broader consequence of halted investments in clean energy alternatives.

One of the major drawbacks of this pandemic-induced reduction in emissions was the cancellation or postponement of renewable energy projects. The researchers highlighted that global electric vehicle sales are projected to decline by 43% in 2020, coinciding with an overall drop in automobile sales and lower gasoline prices. Furthermore, significant declines in clean energy jobs were noted, with nearly 600,000 positions lost by the end of April 2020 (Knittel & Li, 2020). The interruption of investment in renewable energy showcases the vulnerability of green projects against economic downturns, thereby leading to concerns about long-term emissions trajectories.

Long-term impacts of the pandemic may be even more critical than short-term emission reductions. This is primarily due to the potential for prolonged recessions affecting clean technology deployment and climate change mitigation efforts. Should the pandemic lead to enduring economic hardships, then the retreat from renewable energy investment could lead to a resurgence in fossil fuel use and intensify greenhouse gas emissions. The study suggests that delaying renewable energy investments by even a year could result in an emission increase considerably higher than the short-term reductions witnessed during the lockdowns. For instance, up to an additional 2,500 MMT of CO2 could be released during recovery phases, resulting in an alarming 7,500 deaths over time (Knittel & Li, 2020).

Addressing climate change effectively during and after the pandemic will largely depend on the strategic decisions taken by governments around the world. A swift and efficient recovery plan focusing on clean energy solutions is paramount, positing that revitalizing economies could also act as a means of addressing the climate crisis (Li & Knittel, 2020). Stimulus packages targeting clean energy development could restore jobs, mitigate air pollution, and enhance national security. Fostering green jobs by revitalizing sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles could provide a pathway out of recession while addressing climate emergencies.

The second critical aspect revolves around understanding emerging emotional and mental health issues surfacing in this pandemic era. As highlighted by the Healthline Mental Health Index, anxiety, fear, and depression levels surged in the American populace. A substantial percentage of individuals reported feeling isolated and stressed, leading to psychological ramifications that need addressing—thus showcasing how pandemics not only shake economies but also put mental health at risk (Healthline, 2020).

A comprehensive approach toward recovery must, therefore, not only consider the financial rejuvenation of economies but also the mental health implications arising from COVID-19. Continued investment in mental health resources, information, and community support systems will be necessary. Through timely addressing the psychological repercussions of the pandemic along with prioritizing climate solutions, we can navigate the intertwined socio-economic and environmental challenges of our time.

In conclusion, the COVID-19 pandemic has fostered both immediate emission reductions and longer-term uncertainties regarding climate action and human health. The complexities of this relationship necessitate a nuanced understanding to formulate effective policies aimed at minimizing harm during recovery periods while ensuring progressive step towards a sustainable future. Facilitating investments in green technologies and prioritizing mental health solutions could holistically address these urgent problems.

References

• Healthline. (2020). Healthline Launches Mental Health Index to Address Emotional Issues Related to COVID-19. Retrieved from Healthline website.
• Knittel, C., & Li, J. (2020). The short-run and long-run effects of COVID-19 on energy and the environment. Joule.
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2020). COVID-19 impact on global value chains. Retrieved from UNCTAD website.
• National Association of Manufacturers. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on US Manufacturing. Retrieved from NAM website.
• US Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2020). GDP data. Retrieved from BEA website.
• Environmental Protection Agency. (2020). The EPA’s role in the COVID-19 health crisis. Retrieved from EPA website.
• World Health Organization. (2020). Mental health and psychosocial considerations during the COVID-19 outbreak. Retrieved from WHO website.
• International Energy Agency. (2020). Global Energy Review 2020. Retrieved from IEA website.
• American Psychological Association. (2020). COVID-19 and mental health: coping strategies. Retrieved from APA website.
• Energy Information Administration. (2020). Short-term energy outlook: Impacts from COVID-19. Retrieved from EIA website.