Discussion Board Assignment Part 1: Ice Cream Sales Increase

Discussion Board Assignment Part 1as Ice Cream Sales Increase So Do T

Discussion Board Assignment, Part 1 As ice cream sales increase so do the rates of drownings, therefore there is a positive relationship between the two variables—ice cream sales and rates of drownings. This week, you identified 15 articles that you will read in depth in the next few weeks. Based on the abstracts alone, please find a positive or negative relationship. Discuss the two variables and the direction of the relationship. Bonus points if you can correctly explain if your relationship is correlation or causation.

Don’t forget to cite your sources using APA format! Post your initial substantive response by Wednesday at 11:59 p.m. ET Your initial response should be 250 to 350 words All references are expected to be cited in APA format

Paper For Above instruction

The relationship between ice cream sales and drowning incidents is a classic example often cited in discussions about correlation versus causation in statistical analysis. Based on the abstracts of several articles reviewed this week, the relationship appears to be a positive correlation: as ice cream sales increase, so do the rates of drownings. This correlation suggests that these two variables tend to increase together, but it does not imply that one causes the other. Instead, the relationship is likely influenced by a lurking variable—namely, warm weather or hot seasons—leading to increased consumption of ice cream and increased swimming activity, which in turn raises the risk of drowning incidents.

The positive correlation between ice cream sales and drownings can be explained by the seasonal patterns that drive both variables upward during summer months. For instance, during hot weather, more people indulge in ice cream as a refreshing treat, and concurrently, more people participate in swimming activities to cool off. Consequently, both variables rise simultaneously, but neither directly causes the other. This is a classic example of a spurious correlation, where two variables are associated through a common underlying factor.

Distinguishing between correlation and causation is critical; correlation simply indicates a relationship or association between variables, whereas causation implies that one variable directly influences or produces change in the other. In this case, the relationship is purely correlational, driven by external factors such as seasonality and weather conditions. Recognizing this distinction is important because misinterpreting correlation as causation can lead to incorrect assumptions and misguided policies.

In conclusion, the observed positive relationship between ice cream sales and drowning rates exemplifies a spurious correlation driven by external variables. Understanding whether relationships are causal or merely correlational is essential in research, as it prevents false assumptions about cause-and-effect that can influence public health recommendations and policy decisions.

References

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