In 2004, A Sample Of 250 Households In NY Showed That 62 Pai
In 2004 A Sample Of 250 Household In Ny Showed That 62 Paid Their Mon
In 2004, a sample of 250 households in NY showed that 62 paid their monthly phone bills by debit card. In 2009, a sample of 350 households in the same city showed that 110 paid their monthly phone bill by debit card. Based on the sample data, can we conclude that there is a difference between the population proportion of 2004 households and 2009 households in the same city?
a. Determine whether the sample sizes are large enough.
b. Conduct the appropriate hypothesis test. Report the p-value and state whether the null hypothesis would be rejected.
c. Calculate the pooled estimate for the overall proportion.
Paper For Above instruction
Introduction
The comparison of population proportions over different time periods is a common inquiry in social sciences and market research, providing insights into behavioral or technological shifts within communities. In this context, we examine whether the proportion of households in New York using debit cards for paying their monthly phone bills has changed significantly between 2004 and 2009. This analysis involves hypothesis testing for two proportions, requiring verification of sample size adequacy, calculation of a pooled proportion, and determination of the statistical significance of observed differences.
Assessment of Sample Size Adequacy
Prior to conducting a hypothesis test for two proportions, it is essential to verify whether the sample sizes are sufficiently large to justify the normal approximation used in the z-test. The rule of thumb stipulates that both the number of successes and failures in each sample should be at least 10, i.e., \( n_1 p_1 \), \( n_1 (1 - p_1) \), \( n_2 p_2 \), and \( n_2 (1 - p_2) \) should all be greater than or equal to 10.
For the 2004 data:
- Sample size, \( n_1 = 250 \)
- Number of successes (debit card users), \( x_1 = 62 \)
- Sample proportion, \( p_1 = \frac{62}{250} = 0.248 \)
Calculations:
- Successes: \( n_1 p_1 = 250 \times 0.248 = 62 \)
- Failures: \( n_1 (1 - p_1) = 250 \times (1 - 0.248) = 250 \times 0.752 = 188 \)
Since both are greater than 10, the sample size is adequate for the 2004 data.
For the 2009 data:
- Sample size, \( n_2 = 350 \)
- Number of successes, \( x_2 = 110 \)
- Sample proportion, \( p_2 = \frac{110}{350} \approx 0.314 \)
Calculations:
- Successes: \( 350 \times 0.314 \approx 110 \)
- Failures: \( 350 \times (1 - 0.314) \approx 240 \)
Again, both are well above 10, confirming sufficient sample sizes for the 2009 data.
Hence, the samples are large enough to proceed with the z-test for two proportions.
Hypothesis Testing for Population Proportions
The goal is to determine if the difference in sample proportions reflects a true difference in the population proportions. The null hypothesis assumes no difference:
\[
H_0: p_1 = p_2
\]
The alternative hypothesis posits a difference:
\[
H_A: p_1 \neq p_2
\]
The test uses the pooled sample proportion to estimate the common proportion under the null hypothesis:
\[
p_{pooled} = \frac{x_1 + x_2}{n_1 + n_2} = \frac{62 + 110}{250 + 350} = \frac{172}{600} \approx 0.287
\]
The standard error (SE) for the difference between two proportions is:
\[
SE = \sqrt{p_{pooled} (1 - p_{pooled}) \left( \frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2} \right)}
= \sqrt{0.287 \times 0.713 \times \left( \frac{1}{250} + \frac{1}{350} \right)}
\]
Calculating:
- \( 0.287 \times 0.713 \approx 0.205 \)
- \( \frac{1}{250} + \frac{1}{350} \approx 0.004 + 0.00286 = 0.00686 \)
So:
\[
SE \approx \sqrt{0.205 \times 0.00686} \approx \sqrt{0.00141} \approx 0.0375
\]
The observed difference in proportions:
\[
p_2 - p_1 = 0.314 - 0.248 = 0.066
\]
The z-statistic:
\[
z = \frac{(p_2 - p_1)}{SE} = \frac{0.066}{0.0375} \approx 1.76
\]
Using standard normal distribution tables or software, the p-value for this two-tailed test corresponds to:
\[
p \approx 2 \times (1 - \Phi(1.76)) \approx 2 \times (1 - 0.96) = 0.08
\]
Interpretation: Since the p-value (~0.08) exceeds the typical significance level of 0.05, we fail to reject the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level. There is not enough evidence to conclude a statistically significant difference in the proportions.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that both the sample sizes are sufficient for the z-test of two proportions. The calculated p-value suggests that the observed difference in the proportion of households paying with debit cards from 2004 to 2009 is not statistically significant at the 5% level. Therefore, based on this sample data, we cannot confidently assert a change in the population proportion over this period. However, the proximity of the p-value to 0.05 indicates that further data may provide more definitive insights.
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