Online Education Thirty Years From Now The Big University

Online Education Thirty Years From Now The Big University Campuses W

Online Education Thirty years from now the big University campuses will be relicts. Universities won’t survive. It is as large a change as when we first got the printed book. —Peter Drucker1 Introduction As the Internet had become yet another arrow in the quiver of educational institutions and in industries as diverse as elevator manufacturing and financial services, the above quote by Peter Drucker sounded, in January 2015 on the snowy campus of Ivey University, like a warning echoing from the past. Erica Wagner, dean of the School of Information Management, recalled the quote while scanning a recent article in Mashable, citing the recent LinkedIn acquisition of online education company Lynda.com for $1.5 billion.

The Internet and the competition of massive open online courses, or MOOCs, are making administrators like Dr. Wagner question themselves about the future of the institution and programs they had been entrusted to lead. Whereas these new online players seemed to have had minimal incremental effect on prestigious research universities such as Ivey, the future appeared far more uncertain for “middle-tier” institutions that may be required to increase the proportion of online learning compared to more traditional classroom teaching in order to lower their costs. Enrollment in undergraduate programs at Ivey was more selective than ever, due to rising demand. Campuses were teeming with construction workers developing new buildings, adding to existing ones, remodeling teaching and office space, equipping ever more sophisticated labs, and, most importantly it seemed, developing more parking space!

While the number of students in executive education programs had been declining steadily over the last decade, forcing the school to shorten some of its programs from five to three days, many blamed the recent recession for these results, others the competition of new players on nondegree executive education.3 However, as she pondered the future, Dr. Wasgner recalled a passage from an article in The Economist that she had seen a few years before. The memory brought back some of her own uneasiness: “The innate conservatism of the academic profession does not help. The modern university was born in a very different world from the current one, a world where only a tiny minority of the population went into higher education, yet many academics have been reluctant to make any allowances for massification.†Was everyone missing the forest for the trees?

Was the Internet a disruptive technology in the education industry, simply brewing under the surface to soon blindside slow-to-react incumbents? Education and Research at Ivey Like its peers, Ivey University had a complex mission and a large community of stakeholders, ranging from students and faculty to alumni and the local and global community. At the highest level of analysis, Ivey performed two main activities: the creation of new knowledge (i.e., research) and the dissemination of knowledge (i.e., education). As a prestigious Research I institution, Ivey spent a considerable amount of resources supporting the development of new knowledge by hiring some of the brightest young faculty members and accomplished researchers.

Among its faculty it counted twelve Nobel Prize winners and boasted many world-class research centers. While the research mission was pursued in basement labs and offices throughout campus, the most evident manifestation of Ivey’s contribution to society was its teaching mission. A large school like the School of Information Management at Ivey University had truly global reach. Its largest population was about 2,200 undergraduate students. The school also trained master’s students, leaving the workforce for one or two years (a substantial opportunity cost on top of the direct costs of going back to school) to gain an advanced degree and the skills to accelerate their career.

Ivey had a medium size but a very selective master’s program, with about 300 students enrolled. Finally, the school educated the next generation of faculty and researchers by way of its PhD program. A very recognized brand in the business world, Ivey also offered a number of executive education and professional education programs. These were typically highly condensed courses, held on Ivey’s own campus or satellite locations, designed to serve the needs of corporations seeking to update the skills of their workforce or to offer working students a chance to access the wealth of knowledge that the school’s faculty had to offer without having to resign from their job. Global Expansions Because of its brand recognition around the world, the School of Information Management and a number of other schools at Ivey had been focused on global expansion through partnerships and the opening of satellite campuses.

The school had partners in Asia and Europe and was currently evaluating whether to enter the South American market. The reason for global expansion was simple: With the skyrocketing demand for high-quality education in emerging markets around the globe, there was great opportunity to extend the Ivey brand. Expansion was not without challenges, with revenue models being at times challenged and a myriad of logistics and quality assurance hurdles to be overcome. However, as with almost every other recognized education brand entering the new markets, a wait-and-see attitude could be extremely risky. Online Players: A Real Threat or a Nuisance? Since Peter Drucker’s prediction, there had been a significant amount of development in online educational offerings. University of Phoenix, the largest for-profit institution, had about 250,000 students now, but they attained 600,000 enrollments only a few years ago. While quality concerns lingered, not just on prestigious university campuses, online universities seemed to be gaining traction. Perhaps even more interesting and threatening were open source content creation and delivery entities. The best example was offered by Coursera, the for-profit education platform that was the brainchild of Daphne Koller and Andrew Ng, who were offering their computer science courses online, drawing the attention of over 100,000 students.

Coursera, now backed by over $140 million in funding, had come a long way, giving access to 1,472 courses available to interested students from all over the world and a running count of over 16 million learners, 2 million course completions, and 136 university partners. Coursera was focused on academic courses in topics, ranging from math to science to history to the humanities, and it was originally geared to college students. As Dr. Koller put it, “Online education is a more effective way to teach basic facts and skills in part because students can learn at their own pace. Taking classes online gives people the opportunity to pause and reflect and grapple with the material.â€5 Not all online educational offerings were by upstarts. Indeed, traditional universities had their own offerings, and Ivey itself had launched its own online education effort during the late 1990s: iIvey. While the number of courses offered at iIvey had slowly but steadily increased, and some of the school’s programs required them as prerequisites, the iIvey effort seemed to have lost steam after the bursting of the dot-com bubble. Yet with about forty courses available, a price tag between $1,000 and $1,500 per course, and a global reach, iIvey still offered quite a bit of potential, if nothing else, for revenue. The Future As Dr. Wagner watched the snow drop a fresh dusting of white powder on the roof of the gothic buildings across the quad, she pondered some of the words of the article she read: Other industries next in line for disruption like education and health care would be wise to pay attention. Most of what they do depends on the control of information that will soon no longer be scarce. Education reformers have long predicted a world where top professors spread their knowledge across the globe through electronic tools. But the knowledge students need is not only located in those few professors’ minds. Once we digitize not just the distribution of knowledge but the production of it, the existing university system loses its raison d’etre. Why would people come to a single physical location at higher and higher costs when the knowledge it houses is no longer scarce? And the words of Dr. Koller in a recent WSJ article seemed to echo Drucker’s words: “School experience will be like turning the tap—and great education comes out for anybody. We’ll have data from hundreds of thousands, millions of people at a level that’s unprecedented. I think we’re at the cusp of a revolution of treating human learning as science.â€7 Would this really happen? And how would it affect a top university like Ivey? As the dean of the School of Information Management, Dr. Wagner was not only entrusted with the future of the school she led but she also felt a responsibility to help the university community at large thrive in the network economy. Could Ivey miss the wave of the future? “Not on my watch!†Dr. Wagner told herself while getting ready for the first of many of the day’s meetings.

Paper For Above instruction

The transformative potential of online education over the next thirty years represents a seismic shift comparable to the advent of the printed book. As technological innovations like the internet and MOOCs continue to evolve, traditional universities face unprecedented challenges and opportunities. This paper explores whether the internet will disrupt the academic landscape, especially for institutions like Ivey University, by analyzing current trends, technological advancements, and implications for higher education’s future.

Introduction

Peter Drucker’s assertion that universities may become relics within thirty years echoes concerns prevalent among academic leaders. As online education platforms proliferate, some institutions, especially middle-tier schools, worry about sustaining traditional models that rely heavily on physical campuses and face-to-face instruction. These developments prompt a reevaluation of education’s core value and delivery methods. The rise of MOOCs, open-source content, and digital dissemination of knowledge challenge the long-standing assumption that physical proximity is essential for effective learning. The context of Ivey University, with its global reputation, research focus, and expanding international footprint, exemplifies both the threats and opportunities posed by online education advancements.

Online Education as a Disruptive Technology

Disruptive innovation, as coined by Clayton Christensen, suggests that novel technologies can overhaul established markets by providing affordable, accessible alternatives that initially serve niche segments. Online education exemplifies this, as it initially targeted learners unable to access traditional higher education due to geographical, financial, or personal constraints. Platforms like Coursera and edX have expanded educational reach exponentially, offering high-quality courses from prestigious institutions to millions worldwide at relatively low costs. These platforms leverage technology to deliver flexible, self-paced learning, often at a fraction of the cost of on-campus programs. The rapid growth of online offerings, combined with increased digital literacy, signals a paradigm shift that could render traditional university infrastructures less central to higher education.

The Impact on Traditional Institutions

Prestigious research universities, like Ivey, may initially perceive online education as a supplement rather than a threat. However, the competitive landscape is evolving rapidly, with online platforms already disrupting certain market segments. The allure of cost-effective, flexible learning options threatens to siphon students from traditional programs, especially for non-degree courses and continuing professional development. Additionally, the proliferation of online content effectively democratizes knowledge, reducing scarcity and value propositions of exclusive campus-based education. For research-intensive institutions, the challenge involves reconceptualizing their role—balancing research excellence with innovative, digital teaching methods that reach a global audience. Notably, some institutions are developing proprietary online programs, attempting to harness the technology-driven shift while maintaining their prestige and revenue streams.

The Future of Higher Education

The next thirty years may see higher education increasingly driven by data analytics, artificial intelligence, and personalized learning algorithms, facilitating more tailored, effective educational experiences. As Daphne Koller suggests, the ‘revolution of treating human learning as science’ could lead to a future where access to education is virtually limitless, and cost barriers diminish significantly. This democratization of knowledge threatens to reshape the traditional value proposition of universities as exclusive hubs of advanced learning. Instead, they might evolve into nodes within a vast, decentralized network of learning, emphasizing mentorship, research, and experiential learning over mass production of degrees.

Implications for Ivey University

For a reputable institution like Ivey, embracing online education could represent both a survival strategy and an opportunity for growth. By developing online courses, expanding global partnerships, and integrating technology into their pedagogical approach, Ivey can continue to uphold its standards while reaching broader audiences. However, the institution must also address challenges such as maintaining quality assurance, safeguarding academic integrity, and navigating financial models in a digitally dominated landscape. Furthermore, Ivey’s research excellence and reputation could serve as a foundation for developing innovative hybrid models that combine the best of online and traditional education, ensuring its relevance in a rapidly changing environment.

Conclusion

The future of university campuses is uncertain amidst the rapid proliferation of online education technologies. While there is a risk that traditional institutions may become obsolete, there are also opportunities for reinvention and growth. Sustained innovation, strategic adaptation, and embracing the scientific study of human learning will be essential for universities like Ivey to thrive. Ultimately, the question is not whether online education will disrupt higher education but how institutions will leverage this disruptive potential to advance their missions in the digital age. The next thirty years will determine whether universities remain vital knowledge hubs or fade into obsolescence, overshadowed by the democratizing power of technology.

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