Please Watch The Video Below And Answer The Questions

Please Watch The Video Below And Answer the Following Questionshttps

Please watch the video below and answer the following questions: There are many ways to approach business forecasting. For example, there are both qualitative and quantitative methods. Some forecasts are based on highly sophisticated statistical methods; some are based on experience and examine past precedent, while others just follow a gut feeling. The selection of a method depends on many factors such as the context of the forecast, the relevance and availability of historical data, the degree of desirable accuracy, and others. After watching the TEDTalks video, should the executives have considered qualitative methods, quantitative method or both in the decisions. Please be specific. What did you learn in this video that can apply to your professional life?

Paper For Above instruction

Introduction

Effective business forecasting is essential for strategic decision-making and organizational success. It involves predicting future conditions or outcomes based on various methods. The choice of forecasting approach—whether qualitative, quantitative, or a combination of both—depends on factors like data availability, the context of the forecast, and desired accuracy. The TEDTalks video provides insights into these methods and their application in real-world scenarios, highlighting valuable lessons for professional practices.

Overview of Forecasting Methods

Forecasting methods are broadly categorized into qualitative and quantitative approaches. Qualitative methods rely on expert judgment, intuition, and experience. They are particularly useful when historical data is scarce or unreliable, or when the future situation is unprecedented. Techniques such as the Delphi method, scenario analysis, and expert panels exemplify qualitative approaches. Conversely, quantitative methods utilize statistical and mathematical models based on historical data to project future trends. These include time-series analysis, regression models, and machine learning algorithms.

The decision to use one or both methods hinges on context. For example, in stable markets with abundant data, quantitative methods tend to be more accurate. In contrast, during turbulent or novel situations where past data provides limited guidance, qualitative approaches are valuable. Combining both allows organizations to leverage broad empirical evidence while incorporating expert insights, thus enhancing forecast reliability.

Insights from the TEDTalks Video

The TEDTalks video emphasizes the importance of understanding the limitations and strengths of different forecasting approaches. A key lesson is that reliance solely on quantitative models can lead to inaccuracies if underlying assumptions are flawed or data is insufficient. The video advocates for integrating qualitative insights—such as expert opinions and contextual understanding—to inform quantitative models, improving their relevance and accuracy.

Another critical point is the significance of flexibility and adaptation in forecasting. As conditions change rapidly, forecasts must be regularly updated and adjusted. The talk underscores the importance of critical thinking and skepticism towards model outputs, advocating for a balanced approach that values both data-driven analysis and human judgment.

Furthermore, the video illustrates how biases and cognitive errors can influence forecasts, underscoring the need for diverse perspectives and structured decision-making processes. These insights are applicable directly to professional settings, encouraging a more nuanced approach to forecasting that recognizes uncertainty and promotes collaborative, informed decision-making.

Application to Professional Life

The principles illustrated in the TEDTalks video are highly applicable to my professional practice. In the realm of strategic planning, I recognize the necessity of using both qualitative and quantitative methods to formulate well-rounded forecasts. For instance, when evaluating market expansion opportunities, I would leverage historical sales data and statistical models but also consult industry experts to understand emerging trends and potential risks that data alone may overlook.

Additionally, the emphasis on flexibility and continuous updating encourages me to adopt iterative forecasting processes, where forecasts are regularly reviewed and revised based on new information. This approach enhances responsiveness and decision-making agility. Moreover, being aware of cognitive biases—such as overconfidence or confirmation bias—reminds me to incorporate diverse viewpoints and structured judgment techniques, thereby reducing error and improving forecast accuracy.

Finally, the video reinforces the importance of transparency in forecasting processes. Clearly documenting assumptions, methods, and uncertainties not only improves organizational learning but also builds stakeholder trust. These lessons are vital for driving better strategic and operational decisions, ultimately contributing to organizational resilience and growth.

Conclusion

In summary, effective business forecasting benefits from an integrated approach that combines qualitative insights with quantitative data analysis. The TEDTalks video highlights that relying solely on one method can be limiting and that a balanced, adaptable, and critically thoughtful approach is essential. Applying these principles in professional contexts can lead to more accurate predictions, better decision-making, and enhanced organizational agility in facing uncertain futures.

References

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