We Consider A Regression Problem For Predicting The Demand

We Consider A Regression Problem For Predicting The Demand Of Bike Sha

We consider a regression problem for predicting the demand of bike-sharing services in Washington D.C. The prediction task is to predict the demand for the bikes (column cnt) given the other features: ignore the columns instant and dteday. Use the day.csv file from the data folder.

(a) Write a Python file to load day.csv. Compute the correlation coefficient of each feature with the response (i.e., cnt). Include a table with the correlation coefficient of each feature with the response. Which features are positively correlated (i.e., have positive correlation coefficient) with the response? Which feature has the highest positive correlation with the response?

(b) Were you able to find any features with a negative correlation coefficient with the response? If not, can you think of a feature that is not provided in the dataset but may have a negative correlation coefficient with the response?

(c) Now, divide the data into training and test sets with the training set having about 70 percent of the data. Import train_test_split from sklearn to perform this operation. Use an existing package to train a multiple linear regression model on the training set using all the features (except the ones excluded above). Report the coefficients of the linear regression models and the following metrics on the training data: (1) RMSE metric; (2) R2 metric.

(d) Next, use the test set that was generated in the earlier step. Evaluate the trained model on the testing set. Report the RMSE and R2 metrics on the testing set.

(e) Interpret the results in your own words. Which features contribute mostly to the linear regression model? Is the model fitting the data well? How large is the model error?

Paper For Above instruction

Predicting bike-sharing demand using regression analysis involves exploring the relationship between various factors and the number of bikes rented (cnt). This process begins with data loading, exploration through correlation analysis, followed by model training, and finally testing and interpretation of the results. The dataset in consideration, day.csv, contains multiple features that influence bike demand in Washington D.C.

Data Loading and Preprocessing

The first step entails loading the dataset using Python’s pandas library. This involves reading the CSV file and removing irrelevant columns such as 'instant' and 'dteday' to focus on features that impact demand. Ensuring data cleanliness, such as handling missing values, is crucial for subsequent analysis.

Correlation Analysis

Next, the correlation coefficients between each feature and the target variable 'cnt' are calculated using pandas’ .corr() method. These coefficients quantify the strength and direction of linear relationships. Features with positive correlations are identified—particularly, the one with the highest positive correlation provides insights into the most influential predictors. Typically, features like 'registered,' 'casual,' or factors like 'temp' and 'humidity' often display positive correlations with bike demand.

Interestingly, the analysis may reveal no features with negative correlation coefficients; however, an unmeasured feature, perhaps 'precipitation' or 'windspeed,' could realistically have a negative correlation with demand—indicating that as these increase, bike rentals tend to decrease.

Model Training and Evaluation

The dataset is split into training and testing sets with approximately 70% allocated for training, using sklearn's train_test_split function. A multiple linear regression model, implemented via sklearn.linear_model.LinearRegression, is trained on the training data, excluding the 'instant' and 'dteday' columns. Once fitted, the model’s coefficients reveal the weight of each feature. These coefficients help interpret the relative importance: features with larger absolute coefficients significantly influence bike demand.

Model performance is then evaluated on the training data using metrics: RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and R² (coefficient of determination). RMSE provides an estimate of the average prediction error in the same units as 'cnt,' while R² indicates the proportion of variance in demand explained by the model.

Model Testing and Interpretation

The trained model is applied to the test set to assess generalization. Calculating RMSE and R² on unseen data allows evaluation of how well the model predicts new observations. A low RMSE and high R² suggest a good fit; if not, it indicates the model is insufficiently capturing the data’s complexity or that important features are missing.

The analysis often finds that features like 'temp,' 'humidity,' and 'season' contribute most significantly to demand prediction. If the model performs well—reflected in high R² and low RMSE—then linear regression is effective for this task. Conversely, larger errors imply the need for more complex models or additional predictors.

In summary, this approach helps reveal the factors most influential on bike-sharing demand and evaluates the viability of linear regression for demand prediction. The insight gained can inform operational decisions, such as resource allocation during peak periods or weather conditions.

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