To Save On Gasoline Expenses Edith And Mathew Agreed 310044

To Save On Gasoline Expenses Edith And Mathew Agreed To Carpool Toget

Edith and Mathew decided to carpool for commuting to save on gasoline costs. Edith preferred traveling on I-20 highway because it's generally the fastest route, typically taking 25 minutes without traffic delays. Conversely, Mathew noted that traffic jams can occur on I-20, causing trips to extend up to 45 minutes. He suggested Shea Boulevard as an alternative, which takes about 35 minutes but is usually free of traffic jams. Edith agreed that Shea Boulevard is a reasonable backup route if traffic builds up.

Over a month (20 workdays), they drove on I-20 highway and experienced 3 traffic jams. Based on this data, they are uncertain whether continuing to use I-20 is advisable. Additionally, they are contemplating seasonal variations; during winter, adverse weather might increase the frequency of traffic jams on I-20 to 6 days per month. Furthermore, Mathew plans to purchase a new smartphone app capable of monitoring highway traffic in real time, which could reduce the likelihood of encountering jams to approximately 1 day per month. This jam might develop suddenly, even if the app indicates no traffic beforehand.

Paper For Above instruction

The decision to use I-20 highway consistently for commuting depends heavily on the reliability of its travel time and frequency of traffic jams. The empirical data collected over a single month suggests that traffic jams occur approximately 3 times every 20 workdays, translating to an empirical probability of 0.15 or 15% per day. Based on this, Edith and Mathew might reasonably conclude that, in typical conditions, the highway remains sufficiently reliable, especially considering Shea Boulevard as a backup during unforeseen traffic. However, the consideration of seasonal variations and technological interventions warrants a probabilistic analysis to inform their commuting strategy better.

Firstly, analyzing current data, with 3 jams in 20 days, it implies that in typical, non-winter months, the probability of experiencing a traffic jam on any given day is 0.15. Consequently, the expected number of jam days in a month remains low, and the route's reliability is relatively high. Nonetheless, risk-averse commuters might prefer the more predictable Shea Boulevard, which, although longer, offers less variability. The choice hinges on their personal tolerance for delays and the importance of saving time versus avoiding uncertainty.

In winter months, adverse weather conditions tend to elevate traffic congestion, especially on major highways like I-20. Empirical observations and traffic studies suggest that winter weather can significantly increase jam frequency. If jams occur 6 days per month during winter, the probability of jam occurrence per day doubles to 0.30. This increased likelihood reduces the reliability of I-20 dramatically, and the expected number of jam days in winter approximates 6 per month. Therefore, the risk of delays becomes more substantial, possibly prompting Edith and Mathew to favor Shea Boulevard more often during colder months, despite the longer travel time under clear conditions.

Furthermore, technological advancements like a traffic prediction app could substantially alter their decision-making process. If the app reduces the probability of encountering a jam to only 1 day per month, the reliability of choosing I-20 improves markedly. However, even with perfect pre-journey information, the app cannot perfectly predict sudden events—such as a jam developing unexpectedly after the check. Nonetheless, this reduction diminishes the risk associated with using I-20, making it a more attractive option especially during months with higher average jam days.

In conclusion, during typical months with an observed jam frequency of 3 days per month, Edith and Mathew might reasonably continue using I-20, especially if they value time savings. During winter, with an expected rise to 6 jam days, they should consider switching to Shea Boulevard more often, given the increased likelihood of delays on I-20. The deployment of a traffic prediction app that lowers jam probability to 1 day per month further enhances the case for using I-20, even in winter, by reducing uncertainty and improving reliability. Their decision should balance the trade-off between travel time, predictability, and the reliability of real-time traffic information, which collectively underpin an optimal commuting strategy.

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